THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
FOLK PAGEANT is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 48.47% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.4s off the lead. The measured order tops PRIZELAND on 98, 6.3pts clear of MR COLONEL (IRE). PRIZELAND: a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is SUPERIOR CHOICE — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
PRIZELAND
OR · P. J. McDonald / Andrew Balding
MARKET 9.8
98.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
The top rating in this field (98.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.3x market expectation)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
MR COLONEL (IRE)
OR · Shane Gray / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 11
91.7FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (91.7)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 23 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.92x market expectation)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
PLAID
OR · Daniel Muscutt / James Fanshawe
MARKET 3.8
87FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Rated #3 in this field (87)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1PRIZELANDnet +7figure top-2, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard hot
2PLAIDnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
3SUPERIOR CHOICEnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn HIGH (early types average stall 5.0 of 6, field average 3.5).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: PRIZELAND is 0/1 on softer ground · MR COLONEL (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · PLAID is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
MR COLONEL (IRE)MID48.6%104.4a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SUPERIOR CHOICEMID46.5%110.9the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
FLAWLESS FUSION (IRE)———-
FOLK PAGEANTPROMINENT49.9%101.2the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
PLAIDMID48.3%106.1a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
PRIZELANDHELD-UP48.0%107.8a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
FOLK PAGEANTPROMINENTtypically ~2.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.24s off the best)
FOLK PAGEANT is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1PRIZELANDHELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR · P. J. McDonald / Andrew Balding
MARKET 9.8
98.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
98.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 98
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (1.53)
Days since last run
69
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 107.81% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2418 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, off a steady mark, at 4-8 odds, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)5/1435.7%1.462/2100.0%1.96
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 98 at/around today's trip, clears the ~91.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.73 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
107.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 5
7.09 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-07 to 2026-05-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 1 todayThe top rating in this field (98.0)Improving fast — last run rated 98, 14pts above his recent average of 84.0Only 2 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.3x market expectation)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Held-Up) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“held up, effort 3f out, stayed on, chased leader approaching final 1f, kept on”
#2MR COLONEL (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR · Shane Gray / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 11
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
91.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
91.7 · ranked #2 here · career best 104
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (2.12)
Days since last run
30
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.44% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 371 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips—0/120.0%0.0
In fields of <=7—7/779.1%0.63
At Hamilton Park—2/2010.0%0.77
In Class 1-3 company—6/1015.9%0.81
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 104 at/around today's trip, clears the ~91.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.36s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
104.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ascot14fGd/Frm9thTrue38.3 -0.19102.6+0.26
Timed runs 2025-08-22 to 2026-06-17. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 1 todayRated #2 in this field (91.7)Only 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 3 wins from 23 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.92x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, ridden home turn, no response”
#3PLAIDMID
DRAW 2 · OR · Daniel Muscutt / James Fanshawe
MARKET 3.8
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
87FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
87 · ranked #3 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
40
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.08% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Fanshawe · 814 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf33/28911.4%0.824/9824.5%1.27
At this time of year (Q3)38/24615.4%0.975/1729.4%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips20/10419.2%1.035/3215.6%0.64
In Class 1-3 company ✦17/14212.0%0.935/4910.2%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)—1/250.0%1.74
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~91.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.68 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
106.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Jun 26Goodwood9fSoft5thTrue38.1 +0.13107.8-0.01
17 May 26Hamilton Park9fGood1stTrue41.4 +0.67102.9+0.04
30 Mar 26Kempton Park8fSlow2ndTrue39.5 +0.64105.2+0.00
3 Dec 25Kempton Park8fStd1stSlow early40.9 +1.09112.4+0.09
15 Oct 25Nottingham8fGd/Sft2ndTrue38.3 +0.88102.0+0.87
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-15 to 2026-06-07. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 1 todayRated #3 in this field (87)Only 1 run at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“handy, shaken up over 2f out, carried left soon after, kept on until final 100 yds”
#4FOLK PAGEANTPROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR · Jason Hart / Charlie Johnston
MARKET 17
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
86.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (5.55)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.17% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2305 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after within 7 days13/10212.7%0.735/2222.7%1.29
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Hamilton Park9/7811.5%0.842/277.4%0.64
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5227.9%0.812/1508.0%0.74
Over 11f+ trips76/52614.4%1.0516/13312.0%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~91.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.21 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
101.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-02 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 2 winner, upped to Class 1 todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 25 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“dictated, headed around 2f out, edged left 1f out, one paced”
#5SUPERIOR CHOICEMID
DRAW 1 · OR · Shane Foley / John & Thady Gosden
MARKET 2
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 2 tries · beats market expectation (2.08)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 110.94% (strong late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Thady Gosden · 1241 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days99/47520.8%1.0420/10020.0%0.79
Over 11f+ trips ✦53/27319.4%0.9313/5623.2%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)72/36519.7%0.967/1643.8%1.96
At Hamilton Park (small sample)2/450.0%1.77—
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 87 is below the ~91.7 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
+0.56 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.9 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 1 of 2
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
110.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 5
6.83 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Newmarket10fGood1stTrue40.4 +0.01111.6-0.20
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledvery slow2fledvery slow3fledvery slow4fledpar5fledpar6fledpar7fledfast1mledvery fast1m 1fledvery fast1m 2fledvery fast
Timed runs 2026-04-25 to 2026-06-19. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 1 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dictated, quickened over 2f out, cosily”
#6FLAWLESS FUSION (IRE)
DRAW 4 · OR · David Egan / Jessica Bedi
MARKET 370
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
70.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
70.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
46
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jessica Bedi · 100 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 14.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company0/20.0%0.00/50.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips1/333.0%0.610/240.0%0.0
In fields of <=70/120.0%0.01/156.7%0.73
On turf0/310.0%0.01/195.3%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)0/10.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)0/130.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 76 is below the ~91.7 the race demands
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
BOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-18 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price