THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
LAW OF AVERAGE is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 50.35% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 2 at halfway, 0.07s off the lead. The measured order tops LAW OF AVERAGE on 100, 20pts clear of ROCK OF ENGLAND (IRE). LAW OF AVERAGE: the only measured early speed in the race, without over-committing — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls. The shape danger is WOOHOO (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
LAW OF AVERAGE
OR 86 · Joey Haynes / Chelsea Banham
MARKET drifting 2.76 → 3.05
100.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (100.0)Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 3.09)Jockey goes well at this track (2.91x market expectation)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
ROCK OF ENGLAND (IRE)
OR 72 · Jason Hart / Paul Midgley
MARKET backed 4.8 → 4.3
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (80.0)Race-fit — ran 11 days agoA course winner (1 from 2 here)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
WOOHOO (IRE)
OR 70 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 2.62
78.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (78.0)Proven over the trip (23 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Race-fit — ran 4 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1LAW OF AVERAGEnet +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup − 5lb+ above last winning mark
2ROCK OF ENGLAND (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band − 5lb+ above last winning mark
3WOOHOO (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: LAW OF AVERAGE is 0/3 on softer ground · ROCK OF ENGLAND (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · WOOHOO (IRE) is 0/6 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
LAW OF AVERAGEFRONT49.6%99.5the only measured early speed in the race, without over-committing — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
ROCK OF ENGLAND (IRE)MID50.1%100.3the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
WOOHOO (IRE)MID49.7%100.9the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
JUSTMYLUCKMID51.1%99.3one-paced late — 4th of 5 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
JM JHINGREE (IRE)MID51.2%98.5one-paced late — 5th of 5 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
LAW OF AVERAGEFRONTtypically ~2.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
LAW OF AVERAGE is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1LAW OF AVERAGEFRONTDOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 2 · OR 86 · Joey Haynes / Chelsea Banham
MARKET drifting 2.76 → 3.05
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−
100.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
100.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 100
Official mark (OR)
86 · last won off 81
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (3.09)
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · best on the clock in its race Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Chelsea Banham · 277 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: over an unchanged trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)4/557.3%1.093/742.9%3.59
Coming back after 8 to 14 days7/3420.6%2.153/742.9%3.3
In Class 4-5 company5/588.6%1.456/2821.4%2.22
In fields of <=76/3318.2%1.268/1650.0%2.19
Over 5-6f trips ✦19/14613.0%1.2212/4030.0%1.72
Above their last winning mark5/4511.1%0.978/3026.7%1.66
On turf4/458.9%1.192/1414.3%1.29
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)—1/250.0%2.91
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 100 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
99.5%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 5
7.31 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Yarmouth5fGd/Frm3rdTrue42.4 +0.4297.9+0.00
27 May 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm1stTrue43.6 -0.0297.3+0.00
29 Apr 26Bath5fFirm1stTrue41.8 -0.1999.5—
29 Oct 25Kempton Park6fStd7thTrue40.3 -0.71104.2+0.00
7 Oct 25Leicester5fGood9thTrue42.2 -0.1195.4+0.18
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledpar3fledslow4fledpar5fledslow
Timed runs 2025-10-07 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (86 today vs 81)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (100.0)Improving fast — last run rated 100, 9pts above his recent average of 90.7Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 3.09)Jockey goes well at this track (2.91x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)
LTO comment
“made all, went clear over 1f out, comfortably”
#2ROCK OF ENGLAND (IRE)MID
DRAW 4 · OR 72 · Jason Hart / Paul Midgley
MARKET backed 4.8 → 4.3
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 29 tries · beats market expectation (1.06)
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Paul Midgley · 838 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/1378.0%0.73/2412.5%1.29
In Class 4-5 company ✦41/37710.9%1.0713/11011.8%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)28/24011.7%1.021/175.9%0.48
In fields of <=720/9820.4%1.293/2512.0%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)0/100.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 5
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-09 to 2026-07-06. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 66)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (80.0)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.33 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“quickly away, made all, challenged 2f out, found extra”
#3WOOHOO (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 70 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 2.62
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
78.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 23 tries · beats market expectation (1.47)
Days since last run
4
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · best on the clock in its race Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.93% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1461 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, on turf, keeping the same jockey, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦43/23318.5%1.118/8321.7%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips71/40917.4%1.449/1565.8%0.51
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/679.0%0.62
Coming back after within 7 days40/17822.5%1.327/6011.7%0.67
Above their last winning mark96/45321.2%1.4318/16610.8%0.77
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 43.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.82 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr5fGd/Frm2ndTrue43.5 -0.26102.1+0.14
5 Jul 26Ayr5fGood2ndTrue43.3 +0.25102.5+0.32
25 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm7thTrue44.2 +0.4696.3+0.34
5 Jun 26Musselburgh5fGood2ndTrue42.0 +0.17103.4+0.21
31 May 26Thirsk5fGood9thTrue44.1 +0.31102.4+0.27
17 May 26Hamilton Park5fGood4thTrue44.2 +0.0098.9+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-17 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (70 today vs 66)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (78.0)Proven over the trip (23 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 31 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 4 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 4 here)
LTO comment
“close up, under pressure final 1f, no extra late on”
#4JUSTMYLUCKMIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR 73 · Mark Winn / Linda Perratt
MARKET drifting 21 → 50
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
57FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
57 · ranked #4 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 71
Record at today's distance
1 win from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.41)
Days since last run
55
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Linda Perratt · 598 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=74/924.3%0.553/2114.3%1.91
In Class 4-5 company12/1746.9%0.985/4710.6%1.29
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Hamilton Park2/444.5%0.760/130.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)9/1565.8%0.940/160.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark8/1067.5%0.771/362.8%0.32
On turf10/2414.1%0.761/492.0%0.39
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)0/350.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 5
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
23 May 26Haydock Park5fGd/Sft8thTrue40.9 +0.36100.8+0.91
3 Apr 26Newcastle6fStd11thTrue41.7 +0.0490.2+0.00
17 Feb 26Wolverhampton5fStd5thTrue42.2 +0.25100.9+0.05
10 Jan 26Newcastle5fStd1stTrue40.6 +0.00103.1+0.00
Timed runs 2025-09-16 to 2026-05-23. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.41)Lost roughly 4.1 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“slowly away, soon detached”
#5JM JHINGREE (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 66 · Greg Fairley / Ewan Whillans
MARKET 18
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
54.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
54.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 64
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 31 tries · beats market expectation (2.02)
Days since last run
4
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races midfield and fades
Career sheet · last 18 months · 24 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ewan Whillans · 350 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)8/918.8%0.93/1323.1%2.43
At Hamilton Park1/303.3%0.362/1020.0%2.29
Over 5-6f trips8/8010.0%0.952/1811.1%1.72
On turf11/1348.2%0.755/4311.6%1.66
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company5/846.0%0.841/283.6%0.53
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)4/1822.2%1.520/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
98.5%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 5
7.74 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr5fGd/Frm8thTrue43.9 +0.14100.7+0.36
25 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm1stTrue41.5 -0.3699.2+0.00
17 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Sft7thTrue43.3 -0.1796.5+0.00
Timed runs 2026-04-12 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (31 tries, beats market expectation at 2.02)Jockey goes well at this track (1.61x market expectation)Lost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 4 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 4 here)
LTO comment
“dwelt, mid-field, brief effort over 1f out, not sustain effort”