THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
STELLA LUCENTE (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 47.73% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 2 at halfway, 0.21s off the lead. The measured order tops GEO (IRE) on 78, 2pts clear of STELLA LUCENTE (IRE). GEO (IRE): the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is STELLA LUCENTE (IRE) — the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
GEO (IRE)
OR 69 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 2.34
78.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (78.0)Proven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 1.89)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
STELLA LUCENTE (IRE)
OR 67 · Callum Rodriguez / Jack Morland
MARKET 8
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−Rated #2 in this field (76.0)Race-fit — ran 11 days agoRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
SECOND FIDDLE (IRE)
OR 61 · Cara Tuke / Iain Jardine
MARKET 4.2
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−3lb below his last winning mark (61 today vs 64)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (72.0)Proven over the trip (20 tries, beats market expectation at 2.03)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1STELLA LUCENTE (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here
2GEO (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup
3SECOND FIDDLE (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: GEO (IRE) is 1/4 on softer ground · STELLA LUCENTE (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · SECOND FIDDLE (IRE) is 1/7 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
GEO (IRE)MID48.5%102.9the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SOGNIAMOMID50.8%101.0solid late gains (4th of 4 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
ZERMATT STAR (IRE)———-
SECOND FIDDLE (IRE)HELD-UP50.8%103.2a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
STELLA LUCENTE (IRE)PROMINENT48.4%104.8the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
STELLA LUCENTE (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
STELLA LUCENTE (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1GEO (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 69 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET 2.34
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
78.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
69 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 14 tries · beats market expectation (1.89)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.87% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1461 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, on turf, keeping the same jockey, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/41710.8%0.9722/15314.4%1.24
In fields of <=7 ✦43/23318.5%1.118/8321.7%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.36/679.0%0.62
Above their last winning mark96/45321.2%1.4318/16610.8%0.77
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~76.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 4
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 4
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 4
102.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 4
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Hamilton Park11fGd/Frm2ndTrue38.9 -0.09107.8+0.00
24 Jun 26Carlisle7fGd/Frm4thTrue38.0 -0.3397.6+0.00
17 Jun 26Hamilton Park8fGood2ndTrue38.9 -0.47105.3-0.05
31 May 26Thirsk7fGood6thTrue39.9 +0.20106.0+0.01
20 May 26Ayr8fGd/Frm1stFast early40.0 -0.3398.7+0.15
Timed runs 2026-04-26 to 2026-06-25. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (69 today vs 65)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (78.0)Proven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 1.89)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 31 runsNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.5 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led, under pressure 3f out, tackled before final 1f, kept on well, edged out post”
#2STELLA LUCENTE (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 67 · Callum Rodriguez / Jack Morland
MARKET 8
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
67 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 6 tries
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 104.76% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Morland · 241 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)6/5910.2%0.872/922.2%1.63
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips12/6618.2%1.380/320.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days1/283.6%0.250/150.0%0.0
On turf9/7112.7%0.972/444.5%0.47
In Class 4-5 company12/8713.8%1.164/586.9%0.66
In fields of <=74/419.8%0.713/2213.6%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 76 at/around today's trip, clears the ~76.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 4
+0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 4
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 4
104.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 4
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-03 to 2026-07-06. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (76.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden over 2f out, kept on”
#3SECOND FIDDLE (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 61 · Cara Tuke / Iain Jardine
MARKET 4.2
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
61 · last won off 64
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 20 tries · beats market expectation (2.03)
Days since last run
6
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.3s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races held-up (one-paced) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.15% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Iain Jardine · 1190 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks of 60 or below, over an unchanged trip, with the retained rider up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after within 7 days19/8622.1%1.226/2623.1%1.31
At this time of year (Q3)38/3889.8%0.996/3318.2%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Hamilton Park19/13813.8%1.193/368.3%0.82
In fields of <=735/21216.5%1.155/588.6%0.85
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~76.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 4
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 4
+0.55s
Slow away in 4 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 4
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 4
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-12 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb below his last winning mark (61 today vs 64)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (72.0)Proven over the trip (20 tries, beats market expectation at 2.03)Lost roughly 4.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 6 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 4 here)
LTO comment
“held up, headway on inner 2f out, led final 1f, headed close home”
#4ZERMATT STAR (IRE)
DRAW 2 · OR 69 · Jason Hart / Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
MARKET 23
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
60FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
60 · ranked #4 here · career best 63
Official mark (OR)
69 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
67
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · 297 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/8012.5%1.551/911.1%1.24
Over 7-8f trips11/10210.8%1.053/417.3%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=73/2611.5%0.890/130.0%0.0
On turf17/15011.3%1.342/583.4%0.44
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park (small sample)0/10.0%0.0—
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)1/175.9%0.710/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 63 is below the ~76.0 the race demands
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Only 3 runs at this distanceBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-7 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…
LTO comment
“dwelt, rear, brief effort 2f out, ridden when wandered 2f out, never better than mid-field”
#5SOGNIAMOMID
DRAW 1 · OR 70 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET 5.7
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
47.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
47.7 · ranked #5 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
70 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (21.05)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.7s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.05% (holds late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2008 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.043/565.4%0.43
At Hamilton Park9/6314.3%0.882/238.7%0.66
Coming back after 15 to 45 days107/79313.5%1.1116/2157.4%0.69
Over 7-8f trips90/72812.4%1.0214/1977.1%0.73
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 68 is below the ~76.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 4
-0.23 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 4
-0.01s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 3
Finish · closing speed4th of 4
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 4
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Redcar10fGood7thTrue38.5 -0.1799.3+0.00
27 May 26Hamilton Park9fGd/Frm1stTrue39.9 +0.26105.7-0.16
14 Aug 25Salisbury6fGood8thTrue36.7 -0.7798.1+0.14
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-08-14 to 2026-06-19. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceA course winner (1 from 1 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“chased leaders, weakening when edged left from 2f out”