THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
ARAPAHO GOLD (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.6% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.2s off the lead. The measured order tops A BEAR AFFAIR (IRE) on 93, 1pts clear of KAMAAL (IRE). A BEAR AFFAIR (IRE): solid late gains (6th of 9 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is NABATI (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 9
A BEAR AFFAIR (IRE)
OR · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon
MARKET backed 21 → 13
93.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−The top rating in this field (93.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
KAMAAL (IRE)
OR · Rossa Ryan / Jack Jones
MARKET backed 34 → 23
92.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−Rated #2 in this field (92.0)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 8
SALE SHARK (IRE)
OR · Kieran Shoemark / Hugo Palmer
MARKET drifting 5.4 → 6.4
90.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Rated #3 in this field (90.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1A BEAR AFFAIR (IRE)net +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, proven at trip
2SOCIAL SYMBOL (USA)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, yard hot
3ARAPAHO GOLD (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
SOCIAL SYMBOL (USA) FIGURE #4
Simon's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 15.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 10 runners · stalls 1–12
123456789101112
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 2.0 of 12, field average 7.2).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: A BEAR AFFAIR (IRE) is 1/1 on softer ground · KAMAAL (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · SALE SHARK (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
A BEAR AFFAIR (IRE)MID50.3%100.8solid late gains (6th of 9 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
AGAMEMNONMID49.9%102.4solid late gains (5th of 9 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ARAPAHO GOLD (IRE)PROMINENT48.0%105.3the only measured early speed in the race, without over-committing — and finds plenty late
GOD GIVEN TALENT (IRE)MID50.0%100.3one-paced late — 7th of 9 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
KAMAAL (IRE)HELD-UP49.0%102.7solid late gains (4th of 9 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
NABATI (IRE)HELD-UP45.7%112.3the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
SALE SHARK (IRE)MID50.0%99.7one-paced late — 8th of 9 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SEVERN COUNCILS (IRE)———-
SOCIAL SYMBOL (USA)HELD-UP48.6%103.5a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
UNDERDOGHELD-UP50.8%98.5one-paced late — 9th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ARAPAHO GOLD (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
ARAPAHO GOLD (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1A BEAR AFFAIR (IRE)MID
DRAW 9 · OR · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon
MARKET backed 21 → 13
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
93.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
93.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.47)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.8% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2075 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-1525/3467.2%0.8115/9615.6%1.85
At Newbury17/16310.4%1.127/5313.2%1.58
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.818/5714.0%1.26
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 9
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 9
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 9
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 9
7.24 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-03-28 to 2026-07-03. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 2 winner, upped to Class 1 todayThe top rating in this field (93.0)Improving fast — last run rated 93, 9pts above his recent average of 83.3Only 5 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 25 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“prominent, effort 2f out, no extra inside final 1f”
#2KAMAAL (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR · Rossa Ryan / Jack Jones
MARKET backed 34 → 23
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
92.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
31
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.66% (holds late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Jones · 572 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks in the 61 to 75 range, as an exposed handicapper
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf17/2038.4%0.80/580.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦20/2338.6%0.764/596.8%0.59
At this time of year (Q3)10/1506.7%0.681/128.3%0.64
Over 5-6f trips ✦13/1488.8%0.794/429.5%0.66
In fields of 12-158/1037.8%0.872/336.1%0.73
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)2/414.9%0.920/100.0%0.0
At Newbury (small sample)1/616.7%2.570/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 9
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph9th of 9
+0.42s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 9
102.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 9
7.32 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Ascot6fGd/Frm10thTrue40.4 +0.0499.4+0.29
15 May 26Newbury6fGood5thTrue39.9 +0.25105.9+0.54
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hugo Palmer · 1164 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦42/26915.6%1.1915/9016.7%1.32
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)53/38413.8%1.23/446.8%0.58
Coming back after 15 to 45 days63/47713.2%1.0512/12010.0%0.75
In fields of 12-1518/1829.9%1.213/427.1%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)3/2910.3%0.950/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 90 is below the ~92.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 9
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.8 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 9
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 9
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 9
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ascot6fGd/Frm5thTrue40.4 +0.2699.3+0.22
27 May 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm1stTrue43.2 +0.14100.0+0.09
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Simon & Ed Crisford · 861 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips39/17422.4%0.988/3423.5%1.56
At this time of year (Q3)59/29120.3%1.165/2520.0%1.51
In Class 1-3 company30/23612.7%0.9212/7116.9%1.48
In fields of 12-1511/1467.5%0.594/3112.9%1.48
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦63/33318.9%1.0813/8215.9%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)1/234.3%0.390/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 90 is below the ~92.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 9
-0.20 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.6 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph8th of 9
+0.36s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 9
103.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 9
7.18 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ascot5fGd/Frm4thFast early41.3 -0.86100.8+0.36
3 Jun 26Ripon5fGood1stSlow early41.9 +0.46106.1—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-06-03 to 2026-06-20. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 1 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 3 wins from 12 runs
LTO comment
“dwelt, off pace, outpaced, still off pace 2f out, headway entering final 1f, kept on well, took fourth post”
#5ARAPAHO GOLD (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR · Connor Beasley / Michael Dods
MARKET 7
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
85.5FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
85.5 · ranked #7 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 2 tries · beats market expectation (2.05)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.31% (strong late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Dods · 1241 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-1511/2484.4%0.636/5012.0%1.65
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)0/50.0%0.0—
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)10/1506.7%0.961/185.6%0.95
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~92.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 9
+1.07 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.0 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 9
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 9
105.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 9
7.78 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm1stTrue41.3 +1.21102.8+0.01
2 May 26Thirsk5fGd/Frm1stSlow early42.7 +0.93107.8+0.30
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-02 to 2026-07-01. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 1 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 12 runsJockey goes well at this track (4.15x market expectation)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, led over 1f out, went clear, plenty in hand”
#6AGAMEMNONMID
DRAW 12 · OR · Oisin Murphy / Richard Hughes
MARKET 17
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (1.34)
Days since last run
27
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.4% (holds late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hughes · 1044 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-1523/16014.4%1.193/486.2%0.79
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)2/474.3%0.440/170.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~92.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 9
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 9
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 9
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 9
7.21 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ascot5fGd/Frm8thFast early42.1 -0.1198.6+0.11
18 May 26Wolverhampton5fStd1stSlow early41.0 +0.06103.9+0.09
3 May 26Newmarket5fGd/Frm6thTrue42.1 +0.18104.7+0.43
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-03 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 1 todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runs
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along 2f out, kept on final 1f, never on terms”
#7UNDERDOGHELD-UP
DRAW 10 · OR · Saffie Osborne / Richard Spencer
MARKET drifting 48 → 85
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (4.41)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.52% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Spencer · 499 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-154/824.9%0.576/2128.6%1.68
On turf ✦23/22910.0%1.1914/6521.5%1.33
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)25/15715.9%1.432/2010.0%0.76
Coming back after 8 to 14 days6/5610.7%0.743/2213.6%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)2/922.2%2.40/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 82 is below the ~92.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 9
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 9
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 9
98.5%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 9
7.21 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-06-12 to 2026-07-03. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 1 todayOnly 3 runs at this distance
LTO comment
“slowly away, off pace, struggling 2f out”
#8NABATI (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR · William Buick / Charlie Appleby
MARKET drifting 3.3 → 4
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (1.34)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 112.32% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 75
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Appleby · 695 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦60/20030.0%1.097/2133.3%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-1511/6417.2%0.741/147.1%0.44
Coming back after 15 to 45 days77/20537.6%1.1610/5418.5%0.78
Over 5-6f trips38/10635.8%1.186/2722.2%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)9/2733.3%1.281/333.3%1.22
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~92.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 9
+0.83 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 43.1 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph5th of 9
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 9
112.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 9
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.50very slow2f+0.41very slow3f+0.35very slow4f+0.20fast5fledvery fast6fledvery fast
Timed runs 2026-07-02 to 2026-07-02. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 1 todayOnly 1 run at this distance
LTO comment
“held up, progress 2f out, quickened to lead approaching final 1f, plenty in hand”
#9GOD GIVEN TALENT (IRE)MID
DRAW 4 · OR · Tom Marquand / James Ferguson
MARKET drifting 22 → 27
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
68.5FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
68.5 · ranked #11 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (18.84)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Ferguson · 472 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: without a recent yard winner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf25/21111.8%0.96/2524.0%2.53
In fields of 12-1512/9812.2%1.112/1414.3%1.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days30/21613.9%0.928/4318.6%1.37
Over 5-6f trips8/6711.9%1.082/1612.5%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company9/6813.2%1.120/90.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)2/1612.5%0.951/250.0%24.08
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)20/15113.2%1.01/520.0%1.37
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 84 is below the ~92.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 9
+0.53 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph4th of 9
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 9
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 9
6.94 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Ascot6fGd/Frm19thTrue41.2 +0.8293.4+0.31
15 May 26Newbury6fGood1stTrue39.9 +0.23107.2+0.02
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-15 to 2026-06-16. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 1 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.39x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionA course winner (1 from 1 here)