THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Even/unclear early shape. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.56% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 4 at halfway, 0.27s off the lead. The measured order tops VASTERN on 80, 18pts clear of LIVEMORE. VASTERN: one-paced late — 5th of 5 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front. The shape danger is PARC DOSNE (FR) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
VASTERN
OR · Pat Cosgrave / Adam Kirby
MARKET backed 23 → 2.1
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (80.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
LIVEMORE
OR · Connor Planas / T. J. Kent
MARKET backed 100 → 5.5
62.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−Rated #3 in this field (62.0)Jockey goes well at this track (2.06x market expectation)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
LA MARIPOSA
OR · Liam Wright / P. Charalambous & J. Clutterbuck
MARKET 18.5
61.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #4 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1VASTERNnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band − yard cold
2LIVEMOREnet +4market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, FormLab watch flag
3EL CARRUSELnet +3backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup − sectional profile stale
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: VASTERN is unraced on softer ground · LIVEMORE is unraced on softer ground · LA MARIPOSA is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
EL CARRUSELMID49.6%99.5one-paced late — 4th of 5 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
LIVEMOREHELD-UP48.0%105.3a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
PARC DOSNE (FR)HELD-UP48.6%106.2the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
VASTERNHELD-UP49.9%99.2one-paced late — 5th of 5 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ANNCANYA———-
LA MARIPOSAHELD-UP50.1%99.6the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1VASTERNHELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR · Pat Cosgrave / Adam Kirby
MARKET backed 23 → 2.1
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.17% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 7.1f · rated 80
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adam Kirby · 105 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket—1/520.0%7.71
Coming back after 8 to 14 days—7/3221.9%1.33
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)—0/170.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips—2/355.7%0.48
In Class 4-5 company—4/527.7%0.78
On turf—6/698.7%0.78
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.6 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.32s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
99.2%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 5
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-07-03 to 2026-07-03. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (80.0)Only 1 run at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 11 runsNEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)
#2LIVEMOREHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR · Connor Planas / T. J. Kent
MARKET backed 100 → 5.5
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−
62.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
62.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 62
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
47
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.3% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 4 · 8.3f · rated 62
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
T. J. Kent · 181 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket1/128.3%0.981/714.3%1.72
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips17/9418.1%1.40/220.0%0.0
Coming back after 46 to 90 days3/1225.0%3.410/40.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)7/6011.7%1.00/50.0%0.0
In fields of <=75/1533.3%1.450/90.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company20/10519.0%1.471/244.2%0.47
On turf9/7412.2%1.21/214.8%0.65
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 62 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.52 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.7 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.54s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
105.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 5
6.93 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
31 May 26Nottingham8fGood5thTrue37.7 -0.52105.3+0.54
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-31 to 2026-05-31. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (62.0)Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (2.06x market expectation)
LTO comment
“slowly away, off pace, ridden 3f out, ran green, never dangerous”
#3LA MARIPOSAHELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR · Liam Wright / P. Charalambous & J. Clutterbuck
MARKET 18.5
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
61.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 61
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.61% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Timed runs 2026-04-16 to 2026-06-10. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out”
#4PARC DOSNE (FR)HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR · Mason Paetel / Matt Crawley
MARKET 10
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
60.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 60 · earned over 10.0f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 106.17% (strong late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Matt Crawley · 140 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf3/329.4%1.221/1010.0%2.46
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips5/4910.2%0.970/120.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/4710.6%1.170/200.0%0.0
In fields of <=70/240.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 4-5 company (small sample)0/370.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
At Newmarket (small sample)0/70.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)0/310.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 60 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
-0.27 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.4 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.48s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
106.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 5
6.87 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Ffos Las10fGood4thTrue38.5 +0.00105.3+0.23
6 Jun 26Lingfield10fSoft6thTrue36.3 -0.53107.0+0.74
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-06-06 to 2026-06-29. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rating earned over 10.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Jockey goes well at this track (2.8x market expectation)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 253 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Ryan · 252 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips6/767.9%1.240/250.0%0.0
In fields of <=73/417.3%0.780/160.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company8/7810.3%1.271/313.2%0.32
On turf9/1028.8%1.381/273.7%0.36
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)2/248.3%1.960/40.0%0.0
Coming back after 180 days+ (small sample)1/520.0%5.960/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 49 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
+0.27s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
99.5%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 5
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Nov 25Chelmsford City10fSlow6thTrue36.9 -0.20102.3+0.27
Timed runs 2025-08-08 to 2025-11-06 · last timed run 253 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 253 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“always behind”
#6ANNCANYA
DRAW 1 · OR · David Probert / Peter Chapple-Hyam
MARKET backed 95 → 7.2
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Peter Chapple-Hyam · 165 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company10/7513.3%1.40/120.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips7/719.9%1.20/170.0%0.0
On turf8/948.5%0.951/175.9%0.55
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)2/1513.3%2.00/10.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)8/5913.6%1.310/10.0%0.0
In fields of <=7 (small sample)3/2313.0%1.290/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.