THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.36% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.3s off the lead. The measured order tops HIGH DEGREE on 100.7, 4.7pts clear of PERCY'S DAYDREAM. HIGH DEGREE: the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late. The shape danger is WAR HAWK (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
HIGH DEGREE
OR 91 · Cieren Fallon / William Haggas
MARKET backed 2.6 → 2.26
100.7FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−The top rating in this field (100.7)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
PERCY'S DAYDREAM
OR 87 · David Probert / David O'Meara
MARKET drifting 21 → 30
96.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (96.0)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
WAY OF LIFE
OR 88 · Olivia Tubb / Jonathan Portman
MARKET drifting 21 → 36
94.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Rated #3 in this field (94.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 3.38)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1HIGH DEGREEnet +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, quickest early type, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup
2PERCY'S DAYDREAMnet +6figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip − 5lb+ above last winning mark
3AL AALI (FR)net +5drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band − habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
AL AALI (FR) FIGURE #4
George Scott's runners on turf win 19.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: HIGH DEGREE is 1/3 on softer ground · PERCY'S DAYDREAM is 1/4 on softer ground · WAY OF LIFE is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
HIGH DEGREEPROMINENT49.8%100.6the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late
AL AALI (FR)HELD-UP48.5%104.6a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
WAY OF LIFEPROMINENT48.2%105.8just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and finds plenty late; often slow away, which can cost the spot
PERCY'S DAYDREAMFRONT50.1%100.2a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
WAR HAWK (IRE)HELD-UP47.7%107.3the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
DARN HOT GALLOPMID50.5%99.1one-paced late — 6th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
HIGH DEGREEPROMINENTtypically ~2.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.25s off the best)
PERCY'S DAYDREAMFRONTtypically ~2.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
WAY OF LIFEPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.25s off the best)
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1HIGH DEGREEPROMINENTFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 6 · OR 91 · Cieren Fallon / William Haggas
MARKET backed 2.6 → 2.26
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
100.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
100.7 · ranked #1 here · career best 103
Official mark (OR)
91 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.0s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.56% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Haggas · 1572 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket23/12318.7%1.146/3218.8%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)134/54924.4%1.125/4511.1%0.52
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦138/63321.8%0.9826/14917.4%0.84
In fields of <=7 ✦94/35226.7%0.9124/10423.1%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 103 at/around today's trip, clears the ~96.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
100.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 6
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGd/Frm5thTrue38.6 -0.50103.8+1.20
13 Jun 26Sandown Park8fGood3rdTrue38.2 -0.5998.6-0.01
15 May 26Newbury10fGood2ndTrue39.5 +0.03106.5+0.00
25 Oct 25Doncaster8fHeavy6thTrue37.6 +0.7094.4+0.03
Timed runs 2025-07-31 to 2026-06-30. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 3 todayThe top rating in this field (100.7)Only 3 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 27 runsLost roughly 5.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, pushed along 3f out, kept on well final 1f, more to give”
#2PERCY'S DAYDREAMFRONT
DRAW 2 · OR 87 · David Probert / David O'Meara
MARKET drifting 21 → 30
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
96.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
96.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 77
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (5.72)
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2008 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.043/565.4%0.43
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5167.9%0.917/1415.0%0.56
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)6/639.5%0.970/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 96 at/around today's trip, clears the ~96.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.19 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 6
7.00 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-18 to 2026-07-04. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
10lb above his last winning mark (87 today vs 77)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (96.0)Improving fast — last run rated 96, 17pts above his recent average of 78.3Only 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“led, kicked on 3f out, in command entering final 1f”
#3WAY OF LIFEPROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 88 · Olivia Tubb / Jonathan Portman
MARKET drifting 21 → 36
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
94.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
94.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
88 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (3.38)
Days since last run
81
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.0s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.82% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jonathan Portman · 637 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips7/719.9%0.97/2626.9%1.94
Above their last winning mark19/14413.2%1.011/6915.9%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company9/7811.5%1.551/195.3%0.51
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)1/1010.0%0.850/20.0%0.0
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)2/375.4%0.560/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 94 is below the ~96.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.25s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
105.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 6
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-08-25 to 2026-04-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (88 today vs 84)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayRated #3 in this field (94.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 3.38)Lost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, progress 2f out, ridden 1f out, led post”
#4AL AALI (FR)HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 88 · Billy Loughnane / George Scott
MARKET backed 5 → 3.85
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
93.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
93.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
88 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.62% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Scott · 689 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company12/1418.5%0.938/4916.3%1.37
On turf ✦54/34815.5%1.1820/10419.2%1.19
Coming back after 8 to 14 days12/8813.6%0.926/3318.2%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips8/4517.8%0.971/147.1%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)2/345.9%1.082/1118.2%1.2
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~96.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.44s
Slow away in 3 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
104.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 6
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Jun 26Sandown Park9fGood5thFast early37.8 -0.0397.4+0.43
15 May 26Newbury10fGood7thTrue39.5 +0.00106.5+0.38
2 May 26Goodwood9fGood8thTrue41.3 +0.71113.6+0.91
Timed runs 2026-05-02 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
LTO comment
“dropped out, shaken up under 3f out, hung right, plugged on final 1f, never on terms”
#5WAR HAWK (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 87 · Mason Paetel / Simon & Ed Crisford
MARKET drifting 12.5 → 22
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
92.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.9)
Days since last run
350
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 107.27% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 350 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Simon & Ed Crisford · 861 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)59/29120.3%1.165/2520.0%1.51
In Class 1-3 company30/23612.7%0.9212/7116.9%1.48
Over 9-10f trips20/11717.1%1.216/3318.2%1.43
Above their last winning mark16/12612.7%0.874/2913.8%1.17
In fields of <=742/18123.2%0.8911/5520.0%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 180 days+4/2913.8%0.941/175.9%0.44
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)4/3013.3%0.842/540.0%2.41
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 93 is below the ~96.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.46s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
107.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 6
7.00 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Aug 25Goodwood11fGood7thTrue39.3 +0.47106.2+0.56
Timed runs 2025-04-09 to 2025-08-01 · last timed run 350 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (87 today vs 84)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.9)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 12 runsJockey goes well at this track (2.8x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.5 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultReturns from 350 days offHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“off pace, not clear run over 2f out, plugged on”
#6DARN HOT GALLOPMID
DRAW 4 · OR 86 · Hector Crouch / James Tate
MARKET drifting 3.7 → 4.9
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
77FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
77 · ranked #6 here · career best 93 · earned over 8.0/8.0/8.0f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
86 · last won off 83
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield-closer
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Tate · 547 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the retained rider up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket0/70.0%0.02/1118.2%3.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)28/14419.4%1.221/166.2%0.49
Over 9-10f trips8/3821.1%2.031/147.1%0.64
Above their last winning mark12/5422.2%1.284/468.7%0.68
In fields of <=724/8827.3%1.248/5016.0%0.75
Coming back after 15 to 45 days39/17522.3%1.2811/8413.1%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Unproven at this trip — its 96 was earned OFF-TRIP and it has NEVER been rated at today's distance; no evidence it can hit the ~96.0 demand here
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
99.1%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 6
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Ascot8fGd/Frm17thTrue39.0 +0.0895.7+0.29
3 May 26Newmarket8fGd/Frm17thTrue40.0 -0.3797.3+0.69
Timed runs 2025-11-03 to 2026-06-19. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (86 today vs 83)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRating earned over 8.0/8.0/8.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)
LTO comment
“mid-division, brief effort over 2f out, no chance approaching final 1f”