THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.21% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 2.5 at halfway, 0.14s off the lead. The measured order tops VALLEY OFTHE KINGS (SAF) on 90, 3pts clear of GRANDLAD (IRE). VALLEY OFTHE KINGS (SAF): one-paced late — 6th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
VALLEY OFTHE KINGS (SAF)
OR 83 · George Wood / Dylan Cunha
MARKET backed 9.4 → 8.6
90.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (90.0)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.37)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
GRANDLAD (IRE)
OR 82 · David Probert / James Horton
MARKET drifting 6.6 → 7.4
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Proven over the trip (22 tries, beats market expectation at 2.11)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 8
ROGUE BULLET (IRE)
OR 80 · Billy Loughnane / James Owen
MARKET 5.8
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (84.0)Proven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1GRANDLAD (IRE)net +8figure top-2, drops in class, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
2ROCKING ENDSnet +7drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup
3DIOMED DUKEnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
DIOMED DUKE FIGURE #5
Stuart Williams's runners in Class 4-5 company win 10.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Stuart Williams's runners above their last winning mark win 12.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–8
12345678
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–8).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: VALLEY OFTHE KINGS (SAF) is 0/2 on softer ground · GRANDLAD (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · ROGUE BULLET (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ROCKING ENDSHELD-UP49.4%99.4one-paced late — 4th of 8 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
VALLEY OFTHE KINGS (SAF)MID50.4%99.1one-paced late — 6th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
GRANDLAD (IRE)PROMINENT50.0%99.0the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
ROGUE BULLET (IRE)MID49.7%99.0one-paced late — 7th of 8 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
DIOMED DUKEPROMINENT49.4%99.2just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
TUSCAN POINT (IRE)MID50.8%100.1the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
TRAVEL AGENT (IRE)HELD-UP49.9%100.1the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ECCLEFECHANHELD-UP49.9%100.4the best late speed in a one-paced field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
GRANDLAD (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
DIOMED DUKEPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1VALLEY OFTHE KINGS (SAF)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 83 · George Wood / Dylan Cunha
MARKET backed 9.4 → 8.6
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
90.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
90.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
83 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.37)
Days since last run
27
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Dylan Cunha · 805 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦26/15416.9%1.119/6414.1%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)23/20311.3%0.990/190.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days39/28713.6%1.084/974.1%0.41
Over 5-6f trips35/21616.2%1.246/847.1%0.61
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)1/412.4%0.341/147.1%1.04
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 8
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 8
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 8
99.1%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 8
7.56 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm2ndFast early43.9 +1.5198.7+0.23
Timed runs 2025-12-30 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (83 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (90.0)Improving fast — last run rated 90, 18pts above his recent average of 71.3Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.37)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“led, pushed along 2f out, headed final 1f, kept on”
#2GRANDLAD (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 82 · David Probert / James Horton
MARKET drifting 6.6 → 7.4
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
82 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 22 tries · beats market expectation (2.11)
Days since last run
82
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Horton · 357 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark4/4010.0%0.885/1145.5%4.19
Over 5-6f trips11/10910.1%1.143/1717.6%2.46
In Class 4-5 company20/2059.8%1.074/3611.1%1.29
In fields of 8-1115/1539.8%1.134/449.1%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newmarket0/150.0%0.0—
On turf16/15410.4%1.152/355.7%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)0/240.0%0.00/50.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)8/1097.3%0.880/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 8
-0.23 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 42.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 8
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 8
99.0%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 8
7.31 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledpar3fledpar4fledslow5fledslow
Timed runs 2025-09-13 to 2026-04-26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Improving fast — last run rated 87, 9pts above his recent average of 78.0Proven over the trip (22 tries, beats market expectation at 2.11)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Prominent) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“made all, in command approaching final 1f, closed down final 100 yds, just held on”
#3ROGUE BULLET (IRE)MID
DRAW 8 · OR 80 · Billy Loughnane / James Owen
MARKET 5.8
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
80 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 16 tries · beats market expectation (1.47)
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1534 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket5/905.6%0.64/3112.9%1.6
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 8
+0.16 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 43.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 8
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 8
99.0%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 8
7.47 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Lingfield4fGd/Frm4thSlow early43.0 +0.00103.6+0.10
21 Jun 26Brighton5fGd/Frm1stTrue45.0 -0.0198.0-0.08
29 Apr 26Bath5fFirm5thTrue42.0 +0.0597.0—
24 Oct 25Southwell4fStd6thTrue43.4 +0.2696.2+0.11
2 Aug 25Thirsk5fGood10thTrue42.8 +0.3199.2+0.01
30 Jun 25Windsor5fGd/Frm1stFast early44.1 +0.33100.3+0.20
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-06-30 to 2026-06-27. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (80 today vs 73)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (84.0)Proven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 16 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“soon led, headed briefly early, kicked on under 2f out, in command 1f out, kept up to work”
#4ROCKING ENDSHELD-UP
DRAW 4 · OR 85 · Cieren Fallon / Tom Clover
MARKET backed 3.5 → 2.98
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
83.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
83.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 98
Official mark (OR)
85 · last won off 90
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 29 tries · beats market expectation (1.24)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.44% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tom Clover · 500 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket8/3920.5%1.453/1520.0%2.3
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark2/1118.2%1.560/100.0%0.0
In fields of 8-11 ✦23/19212.0%0.916/5910.2%0.64
At this time of year (Q3)25/14017.9%1.272/1513.3%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)1/1100.0%4.512/2100.0%3.38
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 98 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 8
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 8
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 8
99.4%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 8
7.74 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-08-14 to 2026-07-10. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (85 today vs 90)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (29 tries, beats market expectation at 1.24)Lost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 5 here)
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway 2f out, weakened final 1f”
#5DIOMED DUKEPROMINENTFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 6 · OR 72 · Ray Dawson / Stuart Williams
MARKET drifting 5.4 → 5.9
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
76.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
76.7 · ranked #5 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.32)
Days since last run
27
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stuart Williams · 957 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, off marks in the 61 to 75 range, switching jockey after a defeat, with their 3yos, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket11/7514.7%1.534/3611.1%1.42
At this time of year (Q3)44/28215.6%1.383/2213.6%1.32
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-1159/39315.0%1.249/1187.6%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 8
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 43.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 8
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 8
99.2%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 8
7.76 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Newmarket5fGd/Frm5thSlow early42.9 +0.00104.9+0.06
24 Aug 25Yarmouth5fGood4thFast early43.1 +0.0996.1+0.11
25 Jul 25York5fGood5thTrue42.3 +0.0896.1+0.09
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledslow2fledslow3fledpar4f+0.20par5f+0.55fast
Timed runs 2025-07-25 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.32)Cut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Prominent) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led until over 1f out, no extra final 100 yds”
#6TRAVEL AGENT (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR 69 · Pat Cosgrave / Adam Kirby
MARKET drifting 17.5 → 32
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
69 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 14 tries · beats market expectation (1.68)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.11% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adam Kirby · 105 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket—1/520.0%7.71
Over 5-6f trips—11/6118.0%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)—0/170.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days—2/405.0%0.34
In Class 4-5 company—4/527.7%0.78
On turf—6/698.7%0.78
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 8
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 8
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 8
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 8
7.59 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-17 to 2026-07-02. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 73, 20pts above his recent average of 52.3Proven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 1.68)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 11 runsLost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“off pace, ridden and headway on inner over 1f out, not sustain effort”
#7ECCLEFECHANHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR 69 · Alice Bond / John Ryan
MARKET drifting 16 → 19.5
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
69 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 8 tries
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.0s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.39% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Ryan · 252 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days2/474.3%0.590/140.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company8/7810.3%1.271/313.2%0.32
On turf9/1028.8%1.381/273.7%0.36
In fields of 8-117/1056.7%0.862/316.5%0.52
Over 5-6f trips7/1007.0%0.842/277.4%0.56
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)2/248.3%1.960/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 8
-0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 8
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 8
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 8
7.37 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-03-18 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Jockey goes well at this track (2.33x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“rear, kept on from 2f out, never dangerous”
#8TUSCAN POINT (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 70 · William Carson / Adam Kirby
MARKET drifting 29 → 120
Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−
65FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
65 · ranked #8 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 15 tries · below market expectation (0.75)
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: 4.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races midfield
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adam Kirby · 105 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket—1/520.0%7.71
Coming back after 8 to 14 days—7/3221.9%1.33
Over 5-6f trips—11/6118.0%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)—0/170.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company—4/527.7%0.78
On turf—6/698.7%0.78
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 8
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 8
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 8
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 8
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-22 to 2026-07-06. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (70 today vs 65)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 4 todayStable cold this week — 0 wins from 11 runsJockey goes well at this track (4.72x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price