FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Newmarket · 20:43
Class 5 · 7f · Good to Firm
GENERATED 2026-07-17 · 7 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
ALAFDHAL (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.54% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.21s off the lead. The measured order tops BORN A REBEL on 78, 4.3pts clear of MISTER MOJITO (IRE). BORN A REBEL: one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front. The shape danger is MISTER MOJITO (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 4
BORN A REBEL
OR 67 · Arron D'Arcy / Patrick Owens
MARKET 4.1
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (78.0)Proven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 1.4)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
MISTER MOJITO (IRE)
OR 69 · Connor Planas / T. J. Kent
MARKET backed 4.5 → 3.65
73.7 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−3lb below his last winning mark (69 today vs 72)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (73.7)Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.55)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 7
PREFER THE SISTER (IRE)
OR 70 · Mason Paetel / James Owen
MARKET 2.96
71 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (71)Jockey goes well at this track (2.8x market expectation)Race-fit — ran 9 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1MISTER MOJITO (IRE)net +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip
2BORN A REBELnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip − habitually slow away, 5lb+ above last winning mark
3PREFER THE SISTER (IRE)net +3race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, runs the dominant winning style here − 5lb+ above last winning mark
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: BORN A REBEL is 2/7 on softer ground · MISTER MOJITO (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) MID 50.3% 99.7 one-paced late — 5th of 7 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
MISTER MOJITO (IRE) MID 48.8% 103.7 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BORN A REBEL HELD-UP 49.9% 98.5 one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ALAFDHAL (IRE) PROMINENT 48.6% 100.7 the only measured early speed in the race, without over-committing — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
SEDGEMOOR (IRE) MID 51.5% 96.7 held up without the late gear (7th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
CHLOE'S COURAGE MID 49.1% 101.5 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
COOLAGH MAGIC HELD-UP 48.8% 101.0 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ALAFDHAL (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
ALAFDHAL (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 BORN A REBEL HELD-UP
DRAW 4 · OR 67 · Arron D'Arcy / Patrick Owens
MARKET 4.1
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
67 · last won off 61
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 19 tries · beats market expectation (1.4)
Days since last run
27
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.52% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 7811thClass 5 · 7.6f · rated —2ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 757thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 554thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 69
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BORN A REBELbest 78needs 74.3–772025-03-08 · TFR 56 · 8f · Slow · C62025-04-09 · TFR 49 · 8.34f · Good · C62025-04-26 · TFR 1 · 8f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-28 · TFR 62 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-18 · TFR 69 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-28 · TFR 38 · 7.01f · Good · C62025-09-18 · TFR 71 · 7.01f · Gd/Sft · C62025-10-22 · TFR 63 · 8f · Std · C52025-12-13 · TFR 69 · 7.06f · Slow · C52026-02-06 · TFR 55 · 7.06f · Std · C52026-04-24 · TFR 75 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-20 · TFR 78 · 8f · Gd/Frm · C58 Mar 2520 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Patrick Owens · 128 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 19.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips4/725.6%0.621/166.2%1.39
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company3/565.4%0.830/90.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/563.6%0.390/90.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark2/1910.5%1.010/60.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)4/458.9%1.060/40.0%0.0
In fields of <=71/185.6%0.470/50.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)2/825.0%3.250/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.32 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.60s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
98.5%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 7
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Newmarket8fGd/Frm2ndTrue40.0 +0.22103.3+0.46
12 Jun 26Chester7fSoft11thSlow early38.5 +0.8786.1+1.27
24 Apr 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm2ndTrue40.5 +0.47102.5+0.27
6 Feb 26Newcastle7fStd7thTrue40.9 +0.0597.5+0.25
13 Dec 25Newcastle7fSlow4thTrue40.0 +0.3299.2+0.42
22 Oct 25Kempton Park8fStd6thTrue39.5 +0.00102.5+0.91
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.34par2f+0.28slow3f+0.31par4f+0.27par5f+0.09par6fledpar7fledfast1m+0.08slow
Timed runs 2025-10-22 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (67 today vs 61)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (78.0)Improving fast — last run rated 78, 8pts above his recent average of 69.3Proven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 1.4)Lost roughly 2.1 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 4 here)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“handy, led over 3f out, hung left, headed final 100 yds”
#2 MISTER MOJITO (IRE) MID
DRAW 1 · OR 69 · Connor Planas / T. J. Kent
MARKET backed 4.5 → 3.65
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−
73.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
73.7 · ranked #2 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
69 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (1.55)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.72% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 735thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 764thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 725thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 743rdClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 79
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MISTER MOJITO (IRE)best 80needs 74.3–772025-02-26 · TFR 50 · 8f · Std · C52025-03-24 · TFR 73 · 8f · Std · C52025-04-10 · TFR 79 · 7f · Slow · C52025-04-18 · TFR 67 · 8f · Slow · C42025-05-22 · TFR 80 · 7.01f · Firm · C52025-06-24 · TFR 72 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-25 · TFR 75 · 7f · Good · C42025-08-16 · TFR 76 · 7.03f · Firm · C52025-09-11 · TFR 79 · 7f · Slow · C52025-09-19 · TFR 74 · 7.06f · Slow · C52025-10-16 · TFR 72 · 7f · Slow · C52026-04-21 · TFR 76 · 7.01f · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-26 · TFR 73 · 7.01f · Gd/Frm · C526 Feb 2526 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
T. J. Kent · 181 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket1/128.3%0.981/714.3%1.72
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips17/9418.1%1.40/220.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)7/6011.7%1.00/50.0%0.0
In fields of <=75/1533.3%1.450/90.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company20/10519.0%1.471/244.2%0.47
On turf9/7412.2%1.21/214.8%0.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days17/8220.7%1.621/147.1%0.73
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)1/911.1%0.950/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 7
7.40 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Yarmouth7fGd/Frm6thSlow early41.1 +0.05108.3+0.27
21 Apr 26Yarmouth7fGd/Frm5thTrue42.0 +0.00105.0+0.21
16 Oct 25Chelmsford City7fSlow4thTrue39.4 +0.62102.6+0.18
19 Sep 25Newcastle7fSlow5thTrue39.1 -0.05103.4+0.26
11 Sep 25Chelmsford City7fSlow3rdTrue40.7 -0.05102.5+0.18
16 Aug 25Doncaster7fFirm5thTrue41.2 +0.12100.3+0.30
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.14par2f+0.84very slow3f+0.59very slow4f+0.49par5f+0.42fast6f+0.33very fast7f+0.60very fast
Timed runs 2025-08-16 to 2026-06-26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb below his last winning mark (69 today vs 72)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (73.7)Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.55)Jockey goes well at this track (2.06x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“off pace, pushed along 2f out, carried head awkwardly, headway final 1f, no further impression”
#3 PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) MID
DRAW 7 · OR 70 · Mason Paetel / James Owen
MARKET 2.96
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
71 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
71 · ranked #3 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 58
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 24 tries · below market expectation (0.5)
Days since last run
9
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.72% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 702ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 701stClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 733rdClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 622ndClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 60
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for PREFER THE SISTER (IRE)needs 74.3–77best 732025-02-22 · TFR 57 · 7f · Slow · C52025-03-04 · TFR 66 · 7.06f · Std · C52025-03-12 · TFR 60 · 7.06f · Slow · C52025-04-25 · TFR 61 · 7.03f · Good · C62025-05-14 · TFR 62 · 8.01f · Gd/Frm · C62025-05-22 · TFR 56 · 10.1f · Firm · C5 · off-trip2025-07-09 · TFR 64 · 8f · Std · C62025-09-08 · TFR 64 · 8f · Std · C62025-11-05 · TFR 64 · 8f · Std · C62025-11-26 · TFR 48 · 7.06f · Std · C62026-02-04 · TFR 55 · 7f · Std · C62026-02-21 · TFR 51 · 7f · Std · C62026-03-02 · TFR 56 · 8f · Std · C62026-06-11 · TFR 60 · 6.01f · Soft · C62026-06-22 · TFR 62 · 6.95f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-30 · TFR 73 · 6.95f · Good · C62026-07-07 · TFR 70 · 6.95f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-08 · TFR 70 · 8.01f · Gd/Frm · C622 Feb 258 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1534 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newmarket5/905.6%0.64/3112.9%1.6
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 73 is below the ~74.3 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 7
7.43 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jul 26Yarmouth8fGd/Frm1stTrue40.2 +0.02103.2+0.20
7 Jul 26Brighton6fGd/Frm2ndTrue43.4 +0.3697.2—
30 Jun 26Brighton6fGood1stTrue41.8 -0.2596.2+0.00
22 Jun 26Brighton6fGd/Frm3rdTrue43.4 +0.0099.1-0.07
11 Jun 26Yarmouth6fSoft2ndTrue38.8 +0.0999.5+0.29
2 Mar 26Kempton Park8fStd4thTrue38.2 -0.34103.1+0.27
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.26slow2f+0.23slow3f+0.18par4f+0.17par5f+0.17par6f+0.11par7fledfast1mledfast
Timed runs 2026-03-02 to 2026-07-08. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
12lb above his last winning mark (70 today vs 58)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (71)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 16 runsJockey goes well at this track (2.8x market expectation)Race-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“chased leader, loomed up under 2f out, led soon after, pushed out”
#4 COOLAGH MAGIC HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR 51 · Molly Gunn / Anthony Carson
MARKET drifting 32 → 50
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
57.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
51 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
1 win from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.32)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.98% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 574thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 476thClass 6 · 5.3f · rated 359thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 153rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 59
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for COOLAGH MAGICneeds 74.3–77best 702025-02-02 · TFR 67 · 5.03f · Slow · C62025-02-11 · TFR 62 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-02-16 · TFR 70 · 5.03f · Slow · C52025-03-05 · TFR 49 · 5.03f · Slow · C52025-03-15 · TFR 58 · 5.1f · Std/Slow · C52025-04-01 · TFR 63 · 5.03f · Std/Slow · C62025-04-10 · TFR 67 · 5.03f · Slow · C62025-04-22 · TFR 65 · 5.19f · Gd/Frm · C62025-05-21 · TFR 49 · 5.27f · Good · C62025-06-11 · TFR 64 · 6.01f · Good · C62025-06-28 · TFR 56 · 5.1f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-16 · TFR 28 · 6.01f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-15 · TFR 41 · 5.19f · Firm · C52026-01-29 · TFR 55 · 5.03f · Std · C62026-02-10 · TFR 55 · 6f · Slow · C62026-02-25 · TFR 59 · 5.03f · Std · C62026-03-20 · TFR 59 · 5.03f · Std · C62026-04-09 · TFR 15 · 5.1f · Std · C62026-05-29 · TFR 35 · 5.27f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-11 · TFR 47 · 6.01f · Soft · C62026-06-26 · TFR 57 · 6.01f · Gd/Frm · C62 Feb 2526 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Anthony Carson · 79 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf0/180.0%0.01/425.0%2.41
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips0/150.0%0.00/80.0%0.0
Below their last winning mark0/60.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)0/120.0%0.0—
In Class 4-5 company1/185.6%0.56—
Coming back after 15 to 45 days1/283.6%0.671/812.5%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of <=7 (small sample)0/160.0%0.01/250.0%2.36
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 70 is below the ~74.3 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.41s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 7
7.54 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Yarmouth6fGd/Frm1stTrue39.8 +0.02103.2+0.14
11 Jun 26Yarmouth6fSoft4thTrue38.8 +0.0399.1+0.44
29 May 26Brighton5fGd/Frm6thFast early44.8 +0.3295.1+0.63
9 Apr 26Wolverhampton5fStd9thTrue40.4 -0.21101.9+0.88
20 Mar 26Lingfield5fStd3rdTrue42.0 +0.29104.4+0.42
29 Jan 26Lingfield5fStd4thTrue41.6 +0.10102.1-0.04
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.26par2f+0.21slow3f+0.21par4f+0.20par5f+0.08par6fledfast
Timed runs 2026-01-29 to 2026-06-26. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
9lb below his last winning mark (51 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayImproving fast — last run rated 57, 10pts above his recent average of 46.3Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.32)Historically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“in touch, headway approaching final 1f, led final ½f, edged right, kept on”
#5 ALAFDHAL (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 54 · Megan Smith / Phil McEntee
MARKET 42
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
51.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
51.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
54 · last won off 58
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 25 tries · in line with the market (1.01)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.73% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 517thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 3112thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 487thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 575thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 57
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ALAFDHAL (IRE)best 85needs 74.3–772025-01-20 · TFR 68 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-01-28 · TFR 67 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-02-02 · TFR 55 · 5.03f · Slow · C62025-02-22 · TFR 56 · 5f · Slow · C4 · off-trip2025-03-03 · TFR 63 · 6.09f · Std/Slow · C62025-03-17 · TFR 67 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-03-27 · TFR 52 · 5f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-03-31 · TFR 57 · 6.09f · Std · C62025-04-07 · TFR 60 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-10-02 · TFR 39 · 6f · Slow · C62025-10-23 · TFR 56 · 5f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-10-27 · TFR 43 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-11-22 · TFR 65 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-11-25 · TFR 65 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-12-02 · TFR 67 · 5.03f · Std · C62025-12-13 · TFR 68 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-12-30 · TFR 48 · 5.1f · Slow · C62026-01-14 · TFR 57 · 5.03f · Std · C52026-01-27 · TFR 57 · 5.1f · Std · C62026-02-10 · TFR 48 · 6f · Slow · C62026-06-10 · TFR 31 · 6.01f · Soft · C62026-06-28 · TFR 51 · 6.09f · Std · C620 Jan 2528 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Phil McEntee · 472 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf14/12111.6%1.312/219.5%1.61
In Class 4-5 company9/1177.7%1.122/238.7%1.41
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips6/867.0%0.991/254.0%0.54
Coming back after 15 to 45 days11/1248.9%1.261/293.4%0.71
In fields of <=711/8712.6%1.172/229.1%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)4/3013.3%1.762/633.3%7.65
At Newmarket (small sample)0/150.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)7/848.3%1.130/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.19 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 7
7.60 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
28 Jun 26Wolverhampton6fStd6th—40.7 +0.1497.6+0.00—
10 Jun 26Yarmouth6fSoft7thTrue40.8 +0.0095.2+0.00
27 Jan 26Wolverhampton5fStd7thTrue38.9 -0.91102.9-0.12
14 Jan 26Lingfield5fStd5thTrue42.6 -0.06101.5+0.17
30 Dec 25Wolverhampton5fSlow9thTrue41.5 -0.26100.3+0.09
13 Dec 25Wolverhampton5fSlow1stSlow early40.5 -0.08106.8+0.03
Timed runs 2025-12-13 to 2026-06-28. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (54 today vs 58)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led early, headed before halfway, dropped away over 1f out”
#6 CHLOE'S COURAGE MID
DRAW 6 · OR 52 · Alice Bond / John Ryan
MARKET 25
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
44.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
44.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 62
Official mark (OR)
52 · last won off 45
Record at today's distance
1 win from 16 tries · in line with the market (0.97)
Days since last run
176
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.55% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 6 · 7.1f · rated 286thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 432ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 629thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 401stClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 60
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CHLOE'S COURAGEneeds 74.3–77best 622025-08-15 · TFR 34 · 8f · Good · C42025-09-01 · TFR 50 · 6.95f · Good · C62025-09-18 · TFR 37 · 7.01f · Gd/Sft · C62025-10-06 · TFR 55 · 6.01f · Gd/Frm · C62025-10-16 · TFR 53 · 6.95f · Gd/Frm · C62025-10-23 · TFR 49 · 8f · Slow · C62025-11-04 · TFR 37 · 8f · Std · C62025-11-25 · TFR 53 · 7f · Std · C62025-12-02 · TFR 40 · 7f · Std · C62025-12-04 · TFR 60 · 7f · Slow · C62025-12-17 · TFR 40 · 7f · Std · C62025-12-22 · TFR 62 · 7f · Std/Slow · C62026-01-12 · TFR 43 · 7f · Std · C62026-01-22 · TFR 28 · 7.06f · Std · C615 Aug 2522 Jan 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 176 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Ryan · 252 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips6/767.9%1.240/250.0%0.0
In fields of <=73/417.3%0.780/160.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company8/7810.3%1.271/313.2%0.32
On turf9/1028.8%1.381/273.7%0.36
Above their last winning mark5/2619.2%1.391/175.9%0.46
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)2/248.3%1.960/40.0%0.0
Coming back after 91 to 180 days (small sample)1/520.0%1.890/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 63 is below the ~74.3 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
101.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 7
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Jan 26Southwell7fStd9thTrue37.6 -0.7097.9+0.02
12 Jan 26Lingfield7fStd6thTrue39.8 -0.18104.1+0.35
22 Dec 25Lingfield7fStd/Slow2ndFast early40.0 -0.30103.8+0.03
17 Dec 25Lingfield7fStd9thTrue39.6 +0.14101.0-0.19
4 Dec 25Chelmsford City7fSlow1stTrue41.2 +0.0098.5+0.03
2 Dec 25Lingfield7fStd9thTrue39.4 +0.02104.0+0.17
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.17slow2f+0.32slow3f+0.45fast4f+0.61fast5f+0.69slow6f+1.09very slow7f+2.36very slow
Timed runs 2025-12-02 to 2026-01-22 · last timed run 176 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (52 today vs 45)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayJockey goes well at this track (2.33x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“chased leader, pushed along soon after halfway, lost place early in straight”
#7 SEDGEMOOR (IRE) MID
DRAW 3 · OR 53 · Finlay Bassett / John Ryan
MARKET drifting 13 → 15
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
37.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
37.7 · ranked #7 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
53 · last won off 51
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 19 tries · beats market expectation (1.49)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 96.66% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 3315thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 183rdClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 6210thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 341stClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 67
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SEDGEMOOR (IRE)best 81needs 74.3–772025-08-29 · TFR 66 · 7.06f · Slow · C52025-09-06 · TFR 48 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C42025-09-29 · TFR 53 · 6.07f · Std · C62025-10-24 · TFR 49 · 7.06f · Std · C52025-11-20 · TFR 43 · 7f · Std/Slow · C62025-12-01 · TFR 49 · 7.16f · Slow · C62025-12-22 · TFR 38 · 7f · Std/Slow · C62026-02-19 · TFR 55 · 6f · Std · C62026-02-28 · TFR 50 · 7f · Std · C62026-03-06 · TFR 67 · 6f · Std · C62026-04-20 · TFR 34 · 6f · Std · C62026-04-25 · TFR 62 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-16 · TFR 18 · 7.03f · Gd/Sft · C62026-06-23 · TFR 33 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C529 Aug 2523 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Ryan · 252 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips6/767.9%1.240/250.0%0.0
In fields of <=73/417.3%0.780/160.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company8/7810.3%1.271/313.2%0.32
On turf9/1028.8%1.381/273.7%0.36
Above their last winning mark5/2619.2%1.391/175.9%0.46
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/816.2%0.842/306.7%0.5
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)2/248.3%1.960/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
-0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
96.7%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 7
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
23 Jun 26Newbury7fGd/Frm9thFast early41.2 -0.2193.8+0.00
16 May 26Doncaster7fGd/Sft15thFast early40.2 -0.1791.1+0.12
25 Apr 26Haydock Park6fGd/Frm3rdFast early41.2 -0.1094.8+0.28
20 Apr 26Newcastle6fStd10thTrue41.1 -0.3197.8+0.17
6 Mar 26Newcastle6fStd1stFast early41.3 -0.0797.4+0.18
28 Feb 26Lingfield7fStd4thTrue39.9 +0.07105.0+0.22
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.20fast2f+0.18fast3f+0.22fast4f+0.25par5f+0.20very slow6f+0.93very slow7f+2.06very slow
Timed runs 2026-02-28 to 2026-06-23. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 1.49)Historically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along 3f out, beaten over 1f out”