THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. The measured order tops AL SAYAH on 73, 0pts clear of MERRIJIG. AL SAYAH: solid late gains (4th of 5 on late speed here) — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is MERRIJIG — the strongest late speed in this field — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
AL SAYAH
OR 66 · Ashley Lewis / Neil Mulholland
MARKET backed 2.2 → 2.02
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−The top rating in this field (73.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
MERRIJIG
OR 64 · Jason Watson / John Berry
MARKET 3.5
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (73.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
SIMIYANN (IRE)
OR 58 · Ryan Kavanagh / Ian Williams
MARKET backed 10 → 9
61.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
10lb below his last winning mark (58 today vs 68)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (61.0)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runs
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1MERRIJIGnet +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup − habitually slow away
2SIMIYANN (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup
3AL SAYAHnet +4figure top-2, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, FormLab watch flag − sectional profile stale, 5lb+ above last winning mark
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: AL SAYAH is unraced on softer ground · MERRIJIG is 1/5 on softer ground · SIMIYANN (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
AL SAYAHHELD-UP49.7%102.8solid late gains (4th of 5 on late speed here) — profits if the early types overdo it
MERRIJIGHELD-UP47.7%105.7the strongest late speed in this field — profits if the early types overdo it
SIMIYANN (IRE)MID48.4%104.5a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here — profits if the early types overdo it
REGALLY BLONDEPROMINENT49.2%103.7a match for the quickest early — and finds plenty late
OCEANIDESPROMINENT49.4%102.1the quickest of today's early types — and holds on late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
OCEANIDESPROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
REGALLY BLONDEPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.24s off the best)
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1AL SAYAHHELD-UPDOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 5 · OR 66 · Ashley Lewis / Neil Mulholland
MARKET backed 2.2 → 2.02
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 59
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (2.34)
Days since last run
762
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.83% (holds late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Timed runs 2024-06-15 to 2024-10-10 · last timed run 645 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (66 today vs 59)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (73.0)Only 1 run at this distanceReturns from 762 days off
LTO comment
“held up, headway home turn, went on under 2f out, forged clear”
#2MERRIJIGHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 64 · Jason Watson / John Berry
MARKET 3.5
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.99)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.68% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Berry · 172 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf13/11011.8%1.091/254.0%0.37
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)7/5911.9%1.071/333.3%2.45
At Nottingham (small sample)0/60.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 36.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.44s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
105.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 5
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-12 to 2026-06-30. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (73.0)Only 5 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-19 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“held up, headway 3f out, not clear run 2f out, forced to switch, not clear run again 1f out, switched again, ran on”
#3SIMIYANN (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 58 · Ryan Kavanagh / Ian Williams
MARKET backed 10 → 9
61.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 9 tries
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.53% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
104.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.14 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Ffos Las16fGood4th—38.8 -0.17110.0-0.04
8 Jun 26Pontefract17fGood10th—37.5 +0.54—+0.26—
15 May 26Newbury12fGood12thFast early38.2 -0.2694.1+0.48
22 Jan 26Southwell14fStd6thFast early37.7 -0.10110.9+0.27
28 Oct 25Wolverhampton16fSlow4thTrue37.5 -0.44109.3+0.00
3 Oct 25Southwell16fStd3rdTrue35.7 +0.0098.3+0.15
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-03 to 2026-06-30. · 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
10lb below his last winning mark (58 today vs 68)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (61.0)Improving fast — last run rated 61, 21pts above his recent average of 39.7Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runsHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“prominent, shaken up over 3f out, every chance 2f out, not quicken”
#4REGALLY BLONDEPROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 51 · Harry Davies / Ben Case
MARKET drifting 6 → 9.4
53.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
53.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
51 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 103.69% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ben Case
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 64 is below the ~70.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-12 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (51 today vs 57)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 4 here)
LTO comment
“in touch, weakened from 2f out”
#5OCEANIDESPROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 47 · Cam Hardie / Ed de Giles
MARKET backed 200 → 140
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
41.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
41.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 41
Official mark (OR)
47 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races held-up (no impact)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.06% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed de Giles · 239 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)3/803.8%0.450/50.0%0.0
On turf12/11410.5%1.211/313.2%0.44
In fields of <=75/4112.2%0.941/175.9%0.59
Over 11f+ trips10/3826.3%2.031/185.6%0.61
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 38 is below the ~70.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-1.06 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 36.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
102.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 5
6.57 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Ffos Las16fGood6th—38.7 -0.24106.8+0.00
4 Jun 26Ffos Las11fGd/Sft6thTrue36.5 -0.15110.4+0.08
Timed runs 2026-02-23 to 2026-06-30. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price