THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
BALDETTI (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 50.41% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.29s off the lead. The measured order tops BALDETTI (IRE) on 70, 4pts clear of MAXIMUS MERIDIUS (IRE). BALDETTI (IRE): the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 7
BALDETTI (IRE)
OR · David Nolan / Michael Dods
MARKET backed 5.2 → 4.7
70.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−The top rating in this field (70.0)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 12 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.57x market expectation)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
MAXIMUS MERIDIUS (IRE)
OR · Silvestre De Sousa / David Loughnane
MARKET 2.42
66.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−Rated #2 in this field (66.0)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
ANGEL IN MY HEART (IRE)
OR · Oisin McSweeney / Adrian Keatley
MARKET backed 7 → 5.9
61.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Rated #3 in this field (61.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.78x market expectation)Race-fit — ran 9 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1MAXIMUS MERIDIUS (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, yard hot, FormLab watch flag
2BALDETTI (IRE)net +6figure top-2, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here
3ANGEL IN MY HEART (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, FormLab watch flag
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn HIGH (early types average stall 7.0 of 7, field average 4.0).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: BALDETTI (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · MAXIMUS MERIDIUS (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · ANGEL IN MY HEART (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
BALDETTI (IRE)PROMINENT50.4%99.2the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
SEA MIRAGE (IRE)MID50.5%97.8held up without the late gear (5th of 6 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
TURNSTILEMID50.3%98.9one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
KING OF PERSIAMID52.0%96.9held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
MAXIMUS MERIDIUS (IRE)HELD-UP50.1%102.3the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ANGEL IN MY HEART (IRE)——104.6-
DAWLAH (IRE)———-
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
BALDETTI (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best
BALDETTI (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
Timed runs 2026-05-09 to 2026-05-09. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
The top rating in this field (70.0)Only 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 12 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.57x market expectation)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, effort 2f out, kept on final 100 yds”
#2MAXIMUS MERIDIUS (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR · Silvestre De Sousa / David Loughnane
MARKET 2.42
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
66.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
66.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
27
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.3% (holds late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 66
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Loughnane · 745 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦15/11712.8%1.078/3920.5%1.36
Coming back after 15 to 45 days22/2419.1%0.9312/9412.8%1.34
On turf22/2618.4%0.9112/8913.5%1.3
Over 5-6f trips9/2134.2%0.429/7412.2%1.17
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)9/1735.2%0.624/1428.6%2.29
At Pontefract (small sample)1/616.7%1.070/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.50s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 6
7.44 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ayr6fSoft2ndTrue39.3 -0.02102.3+0.50
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-06-20 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (66.0)Only 1 run at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)
LTO comment
“held up, ridden and headway 2f out, bumped final 1f, ran on”
#3ANGEL IN MY HEART (IRE)FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR · Oisin McSweeney / Adrian Keatley
MARKET backed 7 → 5.9
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
61.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 61
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
9
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · finishing speed 104.6% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 61
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Keatley · 416 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: with a new jockey booked, in fields of <=7
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦13/6320.6%1.2111/2642.3%1.85
Coming back after 8 to 14 days3/486.2%0.494/1921.1%1.42
In Class 4-5 company ✦25/16814.9%1.1811/5520.0%1.31
At this time of year (Q3)18/11615.5%1.542/1020.0%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips22/14115.6%1.263/545.6%0.48
Too few runners to read reliably
At Pontefract (small sample)2/1118.2%1.173/560.0%2.66
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 61 is below the ~66.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.0 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.61s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
104.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 6
7.73 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-07-08 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (61.0)Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.78x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 9 days ago
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin Ryan · 1202 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=729/16517.6%1.054/567.1%0.41
At this time of year (Q3)37/4218.8%0.92/296.9%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
At Pontefract (small sample)4/3810.5%0.831/147.1%0.5
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 6
7.49 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Sft6thTrue43.2 -0.2194.4+0.28
9 May 26Leicester5fGd/Frm2ndTrue41.5 +0.4598.9-0.11
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2884 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Pontefract13/11811.0%0.942/345.9%0.56
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 67 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
98.9%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 6
7.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Leicester6fGd/Frm7th—42.5 +0.4397.4+0.14—
30 Jun 26Musselburgh5fGd/Frm3rdTrue—102.8—
12 Jun 26York6fGood3rdTrue41.4 +0.1598.9+0.04
6 Jun 26Musselburgh5fGood3rdFast early—99.2—
23 May 26York6fGood7thTrue40.6 -0.0993.4+0.00
15 May 26Newmarket6fGood4thTrue40.0 -0.19101.8+0.04
Timed runs 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-04. · 2 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-division, headway entering final 1f, one paced”
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2884 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Pontefract13/11811.0%0.942/345.9%0.56
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 57 is below the ~66.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.28s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
96.9%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 6
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
24 Jun 26Carlisle6fGd/Frm7thTrue37.6 -0.2696.3+0.14
15 Jun 26Carlisle5fGood7thTrue39.5 -0.0597.6+0.41
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace