THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
SAILTHISSHIPALONE is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.89% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.33s off the lead. The measured order tops BEST RATE on 92, 5pts clear of BILLYB (FR). BEST RATE: the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is KARTINI (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
BEST RATE
OR 79 · Seamus Cronin / Richard Hannon
MARKET 2.08
92.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−2lb below his last winning mark (79 today vs 81)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (92.0)Race-fit — ran 7 days ago
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
BILLYB (FR)
OR 82 · Sam James / Craig Lidster
MARKET 8
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−2lb below his last winning mark (82 today vs 84)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.37)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
JEZ BOMB
OR 76 · Oisin James Orr / Sam England
MARKET drifting 6.4 → 8.8
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (82.0)Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.94)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1BEST RATEnet +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, FormLab watch flag
2SAILTHISSHIPALONEnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
3EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE)net +5drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), backed since morning, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: BEST RATE is 0/3 on softer ground · BILLYB (FR) is 1/6 on softer ground · JEZ BOMB is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
BILLYB (FR)HELD-UP49.7%100.0one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
BEST RATEMID49.4%101.5the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
JEZ BOMBHELD-UP48.9%100.8the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
SAILTHISSHIPALONEPROMINENT50.2%99.6the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE)MID50.4%99.6one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
KARTINI (IRE)MID49.0%102.5the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
SAILTHISSHIPALONEPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.06s off the field’s best
SAILTHISSHIPALONE is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1BEST RATEMID
DRAW 3 · OR 79 · Seamus Cronin / Richard Hannon
MARKET 2.08
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
92.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 81
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 19 tries · below market expectation (0.74)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.53% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2075 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark3/358.6%0.896/2920.7%1.91
Coming back after within 7 days9/5715.8%1.168/2334.8%1.81
Over 7-8f trips65/6799.6%0.8834/21016.2%1.39
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.818/5714.0%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦61/37516.3%0.9519/12715.0%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Pontefract (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.28s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
101.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 6
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Ascot8fFirm1stTrue39.3 +0.00104.3+0.10
2 Jul 26Newbury7fGd/Frm4thTrue40.3 -0.0399.2+0.17
19 Jun 26Newmarket7fGood2ndTrue41.0 +0.65100.9+0.59
11 Jun 26Newbury7fGd/Sft3rdTrue40.4 +0.93102.4+0.26
27 Mar 26Newcastle7fStd4thFast early40.1 +0.2099.6+0.47
14 Feb 26Lingfield7fStd6thTrue40.8 -0.52102.9+0.12
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.34very slow2f+0.35slow3f+0.37par4f+0.38fast5f+0.33par6f+0.22par7f+0.12par1mledvery fast
Timed runs 2026-02-14 to 2026-07-10. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (79 today vs 81)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (92.0)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 25 runsRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, pushed along over 1f out, led final 100 yds, well on top”
#2BILLYB (FR)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR 82 · Sam James / Craig Lidster
MARKET 8
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
82 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (1.37)
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.05% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Craig Lidster · 497 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company25/22811.0%1.020/520.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/17513.7%1.290/350.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)15/1609.4%0.960/140.0%0.0
On turf30/29110.3%1.021/731.4%0.18
In fields of <=78/899.0%0.831/166.2%0.62
Over 7-8f trips21/16512.7%1.332/365.6%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)2/1414.3%1.310/70.0%0.0
At Pontefract (small sample)4/1526.7%1.991/812.5%1.89
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 94 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.27 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.52s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
100.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 6
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
24 Jun 26Carlisle7fGd/Frm7thTrue39.4 +0.1298.7+0.82
13 Jun 26York8fGood13th—39.3 -0.31100.3+0.52
30 May 26Beverley7fGd/Frm7thTrue39.1 -1.1896.7+0.14
Timed runs 2025-10-11 to 2026-06-24. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (82 today vs 84)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.37)Lost roughly 3.7 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“always behind”
#3JEZ BOMBHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 6 · OR 76 · Oisin James Orr / Sam England
MARKET drifting 6.4 → 8.8
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (1.94)
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.75% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 24 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Sam England · 335 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf ✦17/13412.7%1.057/4814.6%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company ✦14/13910.1%0.955/608.3%0.78
In fields of <=78/3423.5%1.342/1414.3%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Pontefract (small sample)1/185.6%0.391/425.0%2.16
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)11/8313.3%1.071/520.0%1.06
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.36 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.65s
Slow away in 6 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 6
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Pontefract8fGood1st—38.2 +0.52102.9+0.51—
12 Jun 26York10fGood9thTrue40.2 +0.85104.3+0.82
30 May 26Carlisle7fGd/Frm4thTrue38.4 +0.86100.1+0.41
Timed runs 2026-04-08 to 2026-06-29. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (76 today vs 73)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (82.0)Improving fast — last run rated 82, 8pts above his recent average of 73.7Proven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.94)Lost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)
LTO comment
“held up, shaken up over 2f out, edged ahead entering final 1f, driven out”
#4SAILTHISSHIPALONEPROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 75 · Silvestre De Sousa / Ivan Furtado
MARKET backed 5.7 → 4.6
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 22 tries · beats market expectation (1.26)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ivan Furtado · 950 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company18/3225.6%0.8316/1719.4%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days19/13314.3%1.441/492.0%0.22
At this time of year (Q3)22/19311.4%1.32/316.5%0.71
In fields of <=712/11210.7%1.116/688.8%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Pontefract (small sample)0/170.0%0.03/1225.0%2.04
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)2/1216.7%1.550/80.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
99.6%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 6
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-11-25 to 2026-07-07. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (22 tries, beats market expectation at 1.26)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 11 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 5 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, ridden home turn, ridden and headway, every chance 1f out, one paced”
#5KARTINI (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 67 · Andrew Elliott / Simon Whitaker
MARKET drifting 27 → 60
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
67 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
233
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.51% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 233 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Simon Whitaker · 177 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 12.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=70/170.0%0.01/520.0%5.07
Over 7-8f trips5/667.6%1.12/219.5%1.92
On turf5/1044.8%0.772/326.2%1.35
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company0/260.0%0.00/110.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Pontefract (small sample)0/170.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Coming back after 180 days+ (small sample)1/714.3%2.290/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)4/626.5%0.90/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.26s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
102.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 6
7.21 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Nov 25Chelmsford City10fSlow2ndTrue37.8 +0.33104.2+0.58
7 Nov 25Newcastle7fSlow9thTrue39.0 -0.61100.2+0.00
22 Oct 25Kempton Park7fStd4thTrue38.5 -0.27102.9+0.08
13 Oct 25Kempton Park7fStd4thFast early38.5 -0.28101.1+0.18
2 Oct 25Chelmsford City7fSlow3rdSlow early39.3 +0.00104.2+0.46
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-26 · last timed run 233 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (aw→turf, C6→C4) — earned under different conditionsImproving fast — last run rated 75, 10pts above his recent average of 64.7Only 4 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 233 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, headway from 3f out, ridden approaching final 1f, closed to line, clear of rest”
#6EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE)MID
DRAW 2 · OR 74 · James Sullivan / John & Sean Quinn
MARKET backed 21 → 16.5
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
58.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
58.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 107
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 27 tries · below market expectation (0.62)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Sean Quinn · 775 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=720/12016.7%1.05/3016.7%1.49
On turf46/4859.5%0.849/969.4%1.25
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips25/2559.8%0.872/434.7%0.6
In Class 4-5 company ✦36/3989.0%0.775/786.4%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
At Pontefract (small sample)4/1921.1%1.862/728.6%2.92
Below their last winning mark (small sample)4/2913.8%1.022/1315.4%2.3
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)28/27810.1%0.911/119.1%1.57
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 107 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.35 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
99.6%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 6
7.21 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Redcar7fGood9thTrue40.7 +0.0194.8+0.30
4 Jun 26Wetherby7fGd/Frm9thFast early40.5 -0.48103.3+0.05
16 May 26Thirsk7fGood11thTrue39.4 -0.41100.8+0.26
16 Apr 26Ripon8fGd/Sft4thTrue38.8 -0.01100.8+0.04
28 Mar 26Doncaster8fGd/Sft16thTrue37.4 -0.2695.3+0.10
25 Nov 25Wolverhampton8fSlow5thFast early37.4 -0.97102.8+0.24
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-11-25 to 2026-06-19. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
10lb below his last winning mark (74 today vs 84)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits