FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Wolverhampton · 17:00
Class 4 · 14f · Standard
GENERATED 2026-07-17 · 8 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 33.3%winner in the projected 1–2–3 69.7%99 races · latest settled day: #1 9/26, top-3 19/26forensic read: #1 46.2% · top-3 61.5% (26)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
SCOTTISH ANTHEM is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 47.73% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 4.5 at halfway, 0.56s off the lead. The measured order tops MERSEA ISLAND (IRE) on 92, 5.3pts clear of CABRERA (IRE). MERSEA ISLAND (IRE): a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is ST MAWES (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
MERSEA ISLAND (IRE)
OR 86 · Oliver Stammers / Charlie Johnston
MARKET backed 7.4 → 5.8
92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (92.0)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
CABRERA (IRE)
OR 82 · Rob Hornby / Edward Bethell
MARKET backed 9.2 → 7.2
86.7 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (86.7)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 8
SCOTTISH ANTHEM
OR 83 · Millie Wonnacott / Stuart Edmunds
MARKET backed 44 → 38
86.3 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (86.3)Jockey goes well at this track (2.07x market expectation)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1CABRERA (IRE)net +7figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), backed since morning, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
2DANCE TIMEnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard hot
3MERSEA ISLAND (IRE)net +5figure top-2, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven on the going − sectional profile stale, 5lb+ above last winning mark
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
ARCTURUS FLAME (IRE)  FIGURE #5
Richard Hughes's runners at Wolverhampton win 22.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Richard Hughes's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 13.4% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
DANCE TIME  FIGURE #6
David Loughnane's runners above their last winning mark win 14.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–8
12345678
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn HIGH (early types average stall 8.0 of 8, field average 4.5).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
MERSEA ISLAND (IRE) MID 47.5% 106.7 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
HEATHEN HELD-UP 48.2% 107.3 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SCOTTISH ANTHEM PROMINENT 48.5% 104.9 the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
CABRERA (IRE) HELD-UP 48.2% 105.2 a genuine turn of foot — 6th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ST MAWES (IRE) HELD-UP 48.1% 108.6 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ARCTURUS FLAME (IRE) MID 47.9% 107.0 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GENTLE WARRIOR (IRE) HELD-UP 48.7% 105.9 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
DANCE TIME MID 48.7% 104.8 a genuine turn of foot — 8th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
SCOTTISH ANTHEMPROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
SCOTTISH ANTHEM is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 MERSEA ISLAND (IRE) MID
DRAW 6 · OR 86 · Oliver Stammers / Charlie Johnston
MARKET backed 7.4 → 5.8
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
86 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (1.18)
Days since last run
212
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s)
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.65% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 12.0f · rated 921stClass 4 · 14.0f · rated 932ndClass 3 · 14.0f · rated 881stClass 5 · 12.1f · rated 883rdClass 5 · 11.5f · rated 71
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MERSEA ISLAND (IRE)best 93needs 90–90.32025-03-30 · TFR 39 · 10.2f · Good · C3 · off-trip2025-10-01 · TFR 55 · 12.06f · Soft · C52025-10-13 · TFR 71 · 11.47f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-11-03 · TFR 88 · 12.06f · Std · C52025-11-29 · TFR 88 · 14f · Slow · C32025-12-08 · TFR 93 · 14f · Slow · C42025-12-17 · TFR 92 · 12f · Std · C4 · off-trip30 Mar 2517 Dec 25
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 212 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2305 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 180 days+5/637.9%0.769/3228.1%2.14
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Wolverhampton ✦21/15113.9%0.985/4112.2%0.8
Above their last winning mark ✦58/48811.9%0.8820/16712.0%0.82
Over 11f+ trips76/52614.4%1.0516/13312.0%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 8
+0.55 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 8
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 8
106.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 8
7.39 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Dec 25Lingfield12fStd4thTrue40.4 +0.00109.9-0.06
8 Dec 25Wolverhampton13fSlow1stTrue39.5 +2.08110.4+0.37
29 Nov 25Wolverhampton13fSlow2ndTrue39.1 +0.32110.3+0.05
3 Nov 25Southwell12fStd1stSlow early39.7 +0.63105.8+0.05
13 Oct 25Yarmouth11fGd/Frm3rdSlow early40.4 +0.45108.9+0.19
30 Mar 25Doncaster10fGood6thTrue37.4 -0.1694.5+0.15
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledslow2fledvery slow3fledslow4fledslow5fledpar6fledpar7fledpar1mledfast1m 1fledfast1m 2fledvery fast1m 3f+0.08par1m 4f+0.71par
Timed runs 2025-03-30 to 2025-12-17 · last timed run 212 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (86 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (92.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 25 runsNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.8 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 212 days offHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, pushed along 2f out, hung right home turn, headed final 1f, weakened”
#2 CABRERA (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR 82 · Rob Hornby / Edward Bethell
MARKET backed 9.2 → 7.2
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
86.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
86.7 · ranked #2 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
82 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.4s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.17% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 1 · 12.0f · rated 835thClass 4 · 12.0f · rated 904thClass 4 · 12.4f · rated 875thClass 2 · 12.0f · rated 882ndClass 2 · 11.9f · rated 94
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CABRERA (IRE)best 94needs 90–90.32025-04-26 · TFR 88 · 12.05f · Gd/Frm · C22026-03-21 · TFR 87 · 12.45f · Std · C42026-05-31 · TFR 90 · 12.04f · Good · C42026-06-21 · TFR 83 · 12.02f · Good · C126 Apr 2521 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Edward Bethell · 852 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)39/25315.4%0.959/3525.7%1.54
On the all-weather27/19513.8%0.7814/6720.9%1.44
In fields of 8-1152/31316.6%0.9723/11120.7%1.39
In Class 4-5 company68/42116.2%0.8624/12319.5%1.21
At Wolverhampton5/3215.6%0.773/1717.6%1.17
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 8
-0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 8
+0.39s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 8
105.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 8
7.21 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
21 Jun 26Pontefract12fGood9thTrue37.7 -0.8299.7+0.65
31 May 26Thirsk12fGood5thTrue39.1 +0.06106.2+0.21
21 Mar 26Newcastle12fStd4thTrue39.0 +0.24104.9—
26 Apr 25Ripon12fGd/Frm5thTrue39.5 -0.24109.0+0.48
5 Oct 24Newmarket12fGood To Soft6thTrue37.4 -0.07101.8+0.43
13 Sep 24Doncaster11fGood2ndTrue39.1 +0.06109.3+0.17
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.98very slow2f+1.17slow3f+1.44fast4f+1.20fast5f+0.90fast6f+0.73par7f+0.87slow1m+1.12slow1m 1f+1.23par1m 2f+0.99fast1m 3f+1.53very slow1m 4f+2.34very slow
Timed runs 2024-09-13 to 2026-06-21. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (86.7)Only 1 run at this distanceLost roughly 2.9 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“rear, struggling 3f out”
#3 SCOTTISH ANTHEM PROMINENT
DRAW 8 · OR 83 · Millie Wonnacott / Stuart Edmunds
MARKET backed 44 → 38
86.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
86.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
83 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
313
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 104.93% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 3 · 16.3f · rated 809thClass 3 · 11.4f · rated —4thClass 2 · 15.9f · rated 893rdClass 2 · 16.5f · rated 905thClass 2 · 21.6f · rated 83
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SCOTTISH ANTHEMneeds 90–90.3best 902025-06-21 · TFR 83 · 21.65f · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2025-07-19 · TFR 90 · 16.5f · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2025-08-09 · TFR 89 · 15.95f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-07 · TFR 80 · 16.25f · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip21 Jun 257 Sep 25
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 313 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stuart Edmunds
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 8
-0.43 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 8
+0.05s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 8
104.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 8
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Sep 25York16fGd/Frm7thTrue37.7 -1.18106.0-0.06
14 Aug 25Windsor11fFirm9thSlow early39.2 -0.8988.3+0.15
9 Aug 25Ascot15fGd/Frm4thSlow early38.0 -0.19114.2+0.02
19 Jul 25Newbury16fGd/Frm3rd—39.1 -0.07111.6+0.00
21 Jun 25Ascot21fGd/Frm5th—36.3 -0.2399.1+0.28
6 Nov 24Kempton Park15fStandard / Slow4thTrue38.8 +0.00110.4-0.08
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledpar2fledvery slow3fledpar4fledpar5fledslow6fledpar7fledpar1mledpar1m 1fledslow1m 2fledpar1m 3fledvery fast1m 4fledfast1m 5fledpar1m 6f+0.10par1m 7f+0.63slow2m+1.58very slow
Timed runs 2024-11-06 to 2025-09-07 · last timed run 313 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (86.3)Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (2.07x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 313 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dictated, headed 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, soon beaten”
#4 ST MAWES (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR 81 · Darragh Keenan / George Scott
MARKET drifting 4.1 → 4.8
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 86 · earned over 16.0/16.0/16.0f — best at today's distance only 45, below the 86 rating
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
56
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 108.62% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 3 · 16.0f · rated 863rdClass 4 · 16.0f · rated 851stClass 4 · 16.0f · rated 821stClass 5 · 16.0f · rated 785thClass 4 · 11.0f · rated 70
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ST MAWES (IRE)needs 90–90.3best 862025-04-28 · TFR 72 · 10f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-06-13 · TFR 45 · 14f · Good · C52025-08-27 · TFR 70 · 11f · Std · C4 · off-trip2025-09-18 · TFR 78 · 15.99f · Std · C52025-10-15 · TFR 82 · 16f · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2026-05-02 · TFR 85 · 16f · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-05-22 · TFR 86 · 16f · Good · C3 · off-trip28 Apr 2522 May 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Scott · 689 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 11f+ trips10/4621.7%1.643/1520.0%1.95
At Wolverhampton6/3218.8%0.875/1926.3%1.28
On the all-weather27/17915.1%0.9411/5819.0%1.23
In fields of 8-11 ✦40/25615.6%1.1611/7215.3%1.21
Above their last winning mark15/9016.7%0.917/3420.6%1.18
In Class 4-5 company ✦56/33216.9%1.0918/9419.1%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)2/316.5%0.61/1010.0%1.14
Can it do what today needs? Figure may flatter — career best 90 was earned off-trip; at today's distance its best is only 45, SHORT of the ~90.0 demand (must better its trip record)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 8
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 8
+0.40s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 8
108.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 8
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 May 26Goodwood16fGood2ndTrue39.3 +0.00106.1+0.49
2 May 26Goodwood16fGood3rdTrue38.9 +0.22108.0+0.27
15 Oct 25Nottingham16fGd/Sft1stTrue38.9 +0.81112.7+0.29
18 Sep 25Kempton Park15fStd1stTrue37.8 +0.88108.0+0.35
28 Apr 25Windsor10fGd/Frm4thSlow early40.2 -0.20114.9+0.30
23 Oct 24Newmarket10fSoft3rdTrue37.2 -0.11102.1+0.71
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.27slow2f+0.30slow3f+0.32par4f+0.40very fast5f+0.64fast6f+1.01fast7f+0.93fast1m+0.75fast1m 1f+0.77slow1m 2f+0.69slow1m 3f+0.36par1m 4f+0.23slow1m 5f+0.17slow1m 6f+0.12par1m 7f+0.04par2m+0.23slow
Timed runs 2024-10-23 to 2026-05-22. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (16f→13f) — earned under different conditions8lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 73)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRating earned over 16.0/16.0/16.0f, not today's distance — best near today's trip is only 45, below the 86 rating (may overstate him here)Only 1 run at this distanceLost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dwelt, in touch, headway over 2f out, challenged before final 1f, no extra final 50 yds”
#5 ARCTURUS FLAME (IRE) MID
DRAW 2 · OR 75 · Finley Marsh / Richard Hughes
MARKET 5.3
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
81.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
81.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.5s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.96% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 4 · 12.0f · rated 782ndClass 4 · 12.0f · rated 833rdClass 4 · 14.0f · rated 835thClass 4 · 10.0f · rated 813rdClass 4 · 9.5f · rated 82
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ARCTURUS FLAME (IRE)needs 90–90.3best 852025-04-09 · TFR 73 · 8.34f · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-05-09 · TFR 77 · 8f · Firm · C4 · off-trip2025-05-24 · TFR 79 · 9.91f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-06-28 · TFR 63 · 12.29f · Gd/Frm · C52025-10-09 · TFR 84 · 10.17f · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-10-25 · TFR 56 · 10f · Heavy · C3 · off-trip2025-12-03 · TFR 85 · 11f · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-03-30 · TFR 82 · 9.47f · Std · C4 · off-trip2026-04-18 · TFR 81 · 10f · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-05-01 · TFR 83 · 14f · Good · C42026-06-14 · TFR 83 · 12.02f · Good · C42026-07-01 · TFR 78 · 12.03f · Good · C49 Apr 251 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hughes · 1044 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-11 ✦60/39915.0%1.0825/14317.5%1.38
At Wolverhampton ✦19/8921.3%1.288/3622.2%1.21
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦22/18012.2%0.977/6610.6%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)11/7614.5%0.862/1711.8%0.73
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~90.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 8
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 8
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 8
107.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 8
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Epsom Downs12fGood5th—38.5 +0.00105.4+0.08—
14 Jun 26Salisbury12fGood2ndTrue37.0 +0.00104.8+0.00
1 May 26Goodwood14fGood3rdTrue38.6 +0.16110.4-0.03
18 Apr 26Newbury10fGood5thTrue38.9 -0.27108.4+0.21
30 Mar 26Wolverhampton9fStd3rdTrue39.5 +0.79106.0+0.38
3 Dec 25Kempton Park10fStd3rdTrue38.6 +0.00106.7+0.05
Timed runs 2025-12-03 to 2026-07-01. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (75 today vs 69)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, ridden over 2f out, hung right briefly, stayed on final 1f”
#6 DANCE TIME MID
DRAW 4 · OR 72 · Laura Pearson / David Loughnane
MARKET 9.8
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
80.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (3.79)
Days since last run
32
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.81% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 14.1f · rated 807thClass 4 · 15.9f · rated 739thClass 4 · 12.3f · rated 745thClass 4 · 15.8f · rated 784thClass 4 · 14.0f · rated 82
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for DANCE TIMEneeds 90–90.3best 832025-03-01 · TFR 74 · 14.1f · Std · C52025-04-01 · TFR 74 · 13f · Std/Slow · C52025-04-18 · TFR 57 · 15.77f · Std · C42025-09-20 · TFR 72 · 14.4f · Heavy · C52025-10-11 · TFR 63 · 16.25f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-10-31 · TFR 72 · 14.1f · Std · C52025-11-24 · TFR 83 · 14f · Std/Slow · C52025-12-10 · TFR 78 · 15.99f · Std · C42025-12-28 · TFR 72 · 16.46f · Std · C4 · off-trip2026-03-03 · TFR 82 · 14f · Std · C42026-04-03 · TFR 78 · 15.77f · Std · C42026-05-08 · TFR 74 · 12.29f · Good · C42026-05-30 · TFR 73 · 15.89f · Good · C42026-06-15 · TFR 80 · 14.15f · Good · C51 Mar 2515 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Loughnane · 745 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days22/2419.1%0.9312/9412.8%1.34
In fields of 8-1129/3348.7%0.8912/10311.7%1.19
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)9/1735.2%0.624/1428.6%2.29
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)6/4912.2%1.840/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~90.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 8
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 8
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 8
104.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 8
7.12 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jun 26Carlisle14fGood3rd—36.8 -0.12101.2-0.12
30 May 26Chester15fGood7thTrue37.3 +0.03105.5+0.16
8 May 26Chester12fGood9thTrue37.5 -0.73102.9+0.58
3 Apr 26Lingfield15fStd5thTrue41.2 +0.79111.5+0.06
3 Mar 26Wolverhampton13fStd4thTrue38.1 +0.27105.7+0.00
28 Dec 25Southwell16fStd3rdTrue36.8 +0.60102.0+0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.22 2f+0.30 3f+0.15 4f+0.09 5f+0.11 6f+0.14 7f+0.15 1m+0.13 1m 1f+0.15 1m 2f+0.11 1m 3f+0.19 1m 4fled 1m 5f+0.01 1m 6f+0.22 
Timed runs 2025-12-28 to 2026-06-15. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 4/11 on the all-weather3lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 69)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 3.79)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leader, shaken up over 2f out, led briefly approaching final 1f, stayed on”
#7 HEATHEN HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 86 · Marco Ghiani / Jennie Candlish
MARKET drifting 6.8 → 8
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 7−
79.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
86 · last won off 81
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (2.51)
Days since last run
48
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 107.27% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 15.9f · rated 794thClass 4 · 12.3f · rated 784thClass 4 · 13.9f · rated 762ndClass 3 · 11.9f · rated 794thClass 2 · 16.5f · rated 91
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HEATHENbest 91needs 90–90.32025-02-11 · TFR 90 · 14f · Slow · C42025-04-18 · TFR 91 · 16.25f · Std · C2 · off-trip2025-04-27 · TFR 91 · 16.46f · Slow · C2 · off-trip2025-06-14 · TFR 79 · 11.85f · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip2025-06-28 · TFR 76 · 13.85f · Good · C42025-09-13 · TFR 78 · 12.29f · Good · C42026-05-30 · TFR 79 · 15.89f · Good · C411 Feb 2530 May 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jennie Candlish · 483 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)16/12512.8%1.282/1020.0%1.49
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 46 to 90 days2/365.6%0.680/170.0%0.0
At Wolverhampton11/7015.7%1.251/263.8%0.33
Over 11f+ trips8/829.8%0.781/362.8%0.33
Above their last winning mark25/10823.1%1.442/405.0%0.39
In fields of 8-1123/19212.0%1.024/765.3%0.46
In Class 4-5 company25/16914.8%1.414/755.3%0.49
On the all-weather ✦19/14313.3%0.954/666.1%0.59
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 8
+0.36 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 8
+0.46s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 8
107.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 8
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 May 26Chester15fGood3rdTrue37.9 +0.63105.5+0.29
13 Sep 25Chester12fGood4thTrue37.0 -0.07103.2+0.20
28 Jun 25York13fGood4thTrue40.0 +0.18107.3+0.35
14 Jun 25York11fGd/Frm3rdFast early39.4 +0.02104.3+0.88
27 Apr 25Southwell16fSlow4thTrue40.5 +0.76117.2+0.51
18 Apr 25Newcastle16fStd3rdTrue39.1 +0.64106.2+0.52
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.70par2f+1.11fast3f+1.13par4f+0.98par5f+1.12slow6f+1.15slow7f+1.03par1m+1.24par1m 1f+1.16slow1m 2f+1.16par1m 3f+1.09slow1m 4f+0.89slow1m 5f+0.89slow1m 6f+0.80par1m 7f+0.75very fast2m+0.75very fast
Timed runs 2025-04-18 to 2026-05-30. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (86 today vs 81)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 3 here)
LTO comment
“held up, still off pace over 2f out, came wide straight, nearest finish”
#8 GENTLE WARRIOR (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 73 · Jack Nicholls / K. R. Burke
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 16
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
78.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
78.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 8 tries · below market expectation (0.85)
Days since last run
32
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.88% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 5 · 14.1f · rated 754thClass 4 · 13.1f · rated 802ndClass 4 · 14.0f · rated 8010thClass 3 · 14.0f · rated 505thClass 2 · 14.0f · rated 82
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GENTLE WARRIOR (IRE)needs 90–90.3best 852025-04-09 · TFR 68 · 10.23f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-05-28 · TFR 73 · 12.07f · Good · C52025-07-12 · TFR 76 · 11.07f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-07-19 · TFR 78 · 11.9f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-07-29 · TFR 79 · 12.05f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-05 · TFR 83 · 14f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-12 · TFR 85 · 14.4f · Good · C42025-09-26 · TFR 85 · 14f · Good · C32025-10-02 · TFR 82 · 14f · Gd/Sft · C22026-04-04 · TFR 50 · 13.98f · Soft · C32026-05-09 · TFR 80 · 14f · Good · C42026-05-27 · TFR 80 · 13.07f · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-15 · TFR 75 · 14.15f · Good · C59 Apr 2515 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
K. R. Burke · 1714 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Wolverhampton5/608.3%0.548/2532.0%1.53
At this time of year (Q3) ✦92/52017.7%1.0511/4723.4%1.25
Over 11f+ trips19/12015.8%0.9910/4124.4%1.19
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 87 is below the ~90.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 8
+0.32 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 8
+0.41s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 8
105.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 8
6.83 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jun 26Carlisle14fGood6th—37.2 +0.2699.7+0.63
27 May 26Hamilton Park13fGd/Frm4thTrue39.1 -0.20107.1+0.41
9 May 26Nottingham14fGood2ndTrue37.9 +1.44105.5+0.23
4 Apr 26Musselburgh13fSoft10th—38.5 +0.2995.4+0.32
2 Oct 25Nottingham14fGd/Sft5thSlow early38.8 -0.03116.8+0.48
26 Sep 25Haydock Park14fGood3rdSlow early39.6 +0.18110.8+0.41
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.74 2f+0.97 3f+0.95 4f+0.72 5f+0.74 6f+0.87 7f+0.82 1m+0.83 1m 1f+0.86 1m 2f+0.52 1m 3f+0.47 1m 4f+0.35 1m 5f+0.66 1m 6f+1.33 
Timed runs 2025-09-26 to 2026-06-15. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf form3lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 70)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayStable in form this week — 6 wins from 22 runsLost roughly 2.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dwelt, held up, shaken up 2f out, no response”